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Bantamweight

5 Rounds

Cory Sandhagen won · KO/TKO

Elo1419

Elo1484

Marlon MoraesvsCory SandhagenUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · Saturday, October 10, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Cory Sandhagen won

KO/TKO

Model Prediction: Cory Sandhagen wins(64.8%)

Actual result: Cory Sandhagen wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cory Sandhagen at -141 American odds

+$71 profit

$171 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marlon Moraes enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Cory Sandhagen is a KO finisher (55% of wins). Marlon Moraes has lost 83% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Cory Sandhagen (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Marlon Moraes

Red Corner

Cory Sandhagen

Blue Corner

+115

(47%)

Vegas Odds

-141

(59%)

1419

Elo

1484

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'6"

Height

5'11"

170.18 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marlon MoraesL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Henry Cejudo · Jun 19

vs Jose Aldo · Dec 19

KOvs Rob Font · Dec 20

KOvs Merab Dvalishvili · Sep 21

KOvs Song Yadong · Mar 22

latest

Cory SandhagenL2 streak

oldest →

vs Rob Font · Aug 23

vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Aug 24

KOvs Deiveson Figueiredo · May 25

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Oct 25

DECvs Mario Bautista · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marlon MoraesMetricCory Sandhagen

3.37

Strikes / min

4.86

4.53

Strikes absorbed / min

3.47

54%

Strike defense

56%

0.87

TDs / 15 min

1.15

46%

Takedown defense

56%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.16Δ 2.55 — meaningful gap+1.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marlon MoraesCory Sandhagen

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marlon Moraes(10 fights)Cory Sandhagen(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -65.1|Blue +65.1

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +175.0|Blue -175.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marlon MoraesTargetCory Sandhagen

By target zone

26% acc · 71%

Head

25% acc · 42%

20% acc · 7%

Body

90% acc · 24%

50% acc · 21%

Leg

87% acc · 34%

By position

28% acc · 100%

Distance

43% acc · 95%

Clinch

Ground

50% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marlon Moraes rounds

even

Cory Sandhagen rounds

Round 1Cory Sandhagen edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control0:09

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Cory Sandhagen edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 50

Sig Strikes

38 / 88

33%

Sig Str %

40.5%

14 / 50

Total Strikes

38 / 88

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:09

Ctrl Time

0:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Cory Sandhagen	30 / 66	30 / 66	0 / 0
1	Marlon Moraes	12 / 45	12 / 45	1 / 1
2	Cory Sandhagen	8 / 22	8 / 22	0 / 0
2	Marlon Moraes	2 / 5	2 / 5	0 / 0

Marlon Moraes

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights11

Cory Sandhagen

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights17