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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Marlon Moraes won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1419

Elo1524

Marlon MoraesvsAljamain SterlingUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega · Saturday, December 9, 2017Fresno, California, USA

Official fight result

Marlon Moraes won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:07

Model Prediction: Aljamain Sterling wins(60.5%)

Actual result: Marlon Moraes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Aljamain Sterling at +135 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marlon Moraes enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Aljamain Sterling has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Marlon Moraes

Red Corner

Aljamain Sterling

Blue Corner

-145

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+135

(43%)

1419

Elo

1524

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'7"

170.18 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marlon MoraesL4 streak

oldest →

vs Jose Aldo · Dec 19

KOvs Cory Sandhagen · Oct 20

KOvs Rob Font · Dec 20

KOvs Merab Dvalishvili · Sep 21

KOvs Song Yadong · Mar 22

latest

Aljamain SterlingW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Sean O'Malley · Aug 23

vs Calvin Kattar · Apr 24

vs Movsar Evloev · Dec 24

vs Brian Ortega · Aug 25

DECvs Youssef Zalal · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marlon MoraesMetricAljamain Sterling

3.37

Strikes / min

4.26

4.53

Strikes absorbed / min

2.15

54%

Strike defense

59%

0.87

TDs / 15 min

2.54

46%

Takedown defense

44%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.16Δ 3.27 — meaningful gap+2.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marlon MoraesAljamain Sterling

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marlon Moraes(10 fights)Aljamain Sterling(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -104.9|Blue +104.9

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Layoff

Red -105.0|Blue +105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marlon MoraesTargetAljamain Sterling

By target zone

46% acc · 86%

Head

14% acc · 33%

100% acc · 14%

Body

100% acc · 33%

Leg

50% acc · 33%

By position

42% acc · 71%

Distance

38% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 29%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marlon Moraes rounds

even

Aljamain Sterling rounds

Round 1Marlon Moraes edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:13

Knockdowns2

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 14

Sig Strikes

3 / 10

50%

Sig Str %

30%

10 / 17

Total Strikes

3 / 10

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:13

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Aljamain Sterling	3 / 10	3 / 10	0 / 0	0
1	Marlon Moraes	7 / 14	10 / 17	0 / 0	0

Marlon Moraes

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights11

Aljamain Sterling

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights23