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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Markus Perez won · SUB R1
Elo1395
Markus Perez
Elo1365

Markus PerezvsJames BochnovicUFC Prediction Result

UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington · Saturday, May 12, 2018Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Markus Perez won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:28

Model Prediction: Markus Perez wins(69.0%)

Actual result: Markus Perez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Markus Perez at -300 American odds

+$33 profit

$133 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Markus Perez enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Markus Perez threatens submissions; James Bochnovic has lost 50% of fights by sub.
  • Markus Perez has 31pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Markus Perez has 77pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • James Bochnovic has a 20cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Markus Perez
Red Corner
VS
James Bochnovic
Blue Corner
-300
(75%)
Vegas Odds
+250
(29%)
1395
Elo
1365
38
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'4"
185.42 cm
Reach
205.74 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Markus PerezL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Andrew Sanchez · Aug 18
W
SUBvs Anthony Hernandez · Feb 19
L
vs Wellington Turman · Nov 19
L
KOvs Dricus Du Plessis · Oct 20
L
vs Dalcha Lungiambula · Jan 21
latest
James Bochnovic
oldest →
L
KOvs Trevin Giles · Jul 17
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Markus PerezMetricJames Bochnovic
2.60
Strikes / min
0.65
3.72
Strikes absorbed / min
3.64
52%
Strike defense
21%
0.81
TDs / 15 min
0.00
77%
Takedown defense
0%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.12Δ 1.87 — meaningful gap-2.99

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1483 vs 1484Strikes30.0 vs 5.0Takedowns2.0 vs 0.0Sub Atts1.00 vs 0.00Form-1.0 vs -1.0
Markus PerezJames Bochnovic

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Markus Perez(7 fights)James Bochnovic(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +29.3|Blue -29.3
Recent Form
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -154.0|Blue +154.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Markus PerezTargetJames Bochnovic

By target zone

3
100% acc · 75%
Head
1
33% acc · 33%
1
100% acc · 25%
Body
2
67% acc · 67%
0
Leg
0

By position

0
Distance
1
33% acc · 33%
1
100% acc · 25%
Clinch
1
50% acc · 33%
3
100% acc · 75%
Ground
1
100% acc · 33%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Markus Perez rounds
0
even
0
James Bochnovic rounds
Round 1Markus Perez edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns1
Control3:17
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:59Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
4 / 4
Sig Strikes
3 / 6
100%
Sig Str %
50%
13 / 16
Total Strikes
4 / 8
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 1
100%
TD %
0%
2
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
3:17
Ctrl Time
0:59

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1James Bochnovic3 / 64 / 80 / 10
1Markus Perez4 / 413 / 161 / 12

Markus Perez

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights7

James Bochnovic

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach81.0"
Fights2