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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Markus Perez won · SUB R2

Elo1395

Elo1530

Anthony Hernandez editorial illustration

Markus PerezvsAnthony HernandezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 · Saturday, February 2, 2019Fortaleza, Ceara, Brazil

Official fight result

Markus Perez won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:07

Style matchupMarkus Perez: Submission grapplervsAnthony Hernandez: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Markus Perez wins(56.4%)

Actual result: Markus Perez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Markus Perez at +115 American odds

+$115 profit

$215 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Markus Perez enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Markus Perez threatens submissions; Anthony Hernandez has lost 33% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Markus Perez

Red Corner

Anthony Hernandez

Blue Corner

+115

(47%)

Vegas Odds

-135

(57%)

1395

Elo

1530

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'0"

185.42 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Markus PerezL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs James Bochnovic · May 18

vs Andrew Sanchez · Aug 18

vs Wellington Turman · Nov 19

KOvs Dricus Du Plessis · Oct 20

vs Dalcha Lungiambula · Jan 21

latest

Anthony Hernandez

oldest →

SUBvs Roman Kopylov · Feb 24

KOvs Michel Pereira · Oct 24

vs Brendan Allen · Feb 25

SUBvs Roman Dolidze · Aug 25

KOvs Sean Strickland · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Markus PerezMetricAnthony Hernandez

2.60

Strikes / min

4.57

3.72

Strikes absorbed / min

3.10

52%

Strike defense

51%

0.81

TDs / 15 min

5.88

77%

Takedown defense

68%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.12Δ 2.59 — meaningful gap+1.47

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Markus PerezAnthony Hernandez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Markus Perez(7 fights)Anthony Hernandez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -135.5|Blue +135.5

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -48.8|Blue +48.8

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Markus PerezTargetAnthony Hernandez

By target zone

38% acc · 56%

Head

47% acc · 88%

83% acc · 31%

Body

0% acc

100% acc · 13%

Leg

100% acc · 12%

By position

52% acc · 75%

Distance

32% acc · 35%

44% acc · 25%

Clinch

69% acc · 65%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Markus Perez rounds

even

Anthony Hernandez rounds

Round 1Markus Perez edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control1:49

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:37Control

Round 2Markus Perez edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:51

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

16 / 32

Sig Strikes

17 / 35

50%

Sig Str %

48%

19 / 35

Total Strikes

21 / 39

1 / 7

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:40

Ctrl Time

0:37

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Anthony Hernandez	17 / 35	21 / 39	0 / 0	0
1	Markus Perez	15 / 30	16 / 31	1 / 6	0
2	Anthony Hernandez	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0
2	Markus Perez	1 / 2	3 / 4	0 / 1	1

Markus Perez

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7

Anthony Hernandez

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights12