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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Roan Carneiro won · SUB R1
Elo1490
Elo1491

Mark MunozvsRoan CarneiroUFC Prediction Result

UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano · Saturday, February 28, 2015Los Angeles, California, USA

Official fight result

Roan Carneiro won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:40

Style matchupMark Munoz: WrestlervsRoan Carneiro: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Mark Munoz wins(61.3%)

Actual result: Roan Carneiro wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mark Munoz at -260 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Roan Carneiro threatens submissions; Mark Munoz has lost 40% of fights by sub.
  • Roan Carneiro has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Roan Carneiro has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Mark Munoz
Red Corner
VS
Roan Carneiro
Blue Corner
-260
(72%)
Vegas Odds
+240
(29%)
1490
Elo
1491
48
Age
48
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
5'11"
180.34 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mark Munoz
oldest →
L
KOvs Chris Weidman · Jul 12
W
vs Tim Boetsch · Jul 13
L
KOvs Lyoto Machida · Oct 13
L
SUBvs Gegard Mousasi · May 14
W
vs Luke Barnatt · May 15
latest
Roan Carneiro
oldest →
L
KOvs Derek Brunson · Feb 16
W
vs Kenny Robertson · Sep 16
L
vs Ryan LaFlare · Feb 17
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mark MunozMetricRoan Carneiro
3.12
Strikes / min
1.46
2.26
Strikes absorbed / min
1.82
57%
Strike defense
62%
3.17
TDs / 15 min
3.05
57%
Takedown defense
83%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
1.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.86Δ 1.22 — meaningful gap-0.36

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1528 vs 1500Strikes27.6 vs 16.0Takedowns1.5 vs 3.2Sub Atts0.38 vs 1.60Form-0.5 vs 0.0
Mark MunozRoan Carneiro

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Mark Munoz(10 fights)Roan Carneiro(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Recent Form
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score
Red -48.0|Blue +48.0
Grappler Score
Red -49.7|Blue +49.7
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mark MunozTargetRoan Carneiro

By target zone

0
Head
0
0% acc
0
Body
0
0
0% acc
Leg
1
100% acc · 100%

By position

0
0% acc
Distance
1
33% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Mark Munoz rounds
0
even
1
Roan Carneiro rounds
Round 1Roan Carneiro edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns0
Control0:00
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:53Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
0 / 1
Sig Strikes
1 / 3
0%
Sig Str %
33%
0 / 1
Total Strikes
2 / 4
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:53

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Roan Carneiro1 / 32 / 40 / 01
1Mark Munoz0 / 10 / 10 / 10

Mark Munoz

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights12

Roan Carneiro

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights4