Middleweight

3 Rounds

Mark Munoz won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1355

Mark MunozvsLuke BarnattUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Faber · Saturday, May 16, 2015Manila, Philippines

Official fight result

Mark Munoz won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMark Munoz: WrestlervsLuke Barnatt: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Luke Barnatt wins(52.2%)

Actual result: Mark Munoz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Luke Barnatt at -135 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mark Munoz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Luke Barnatt has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Mark Munoz

Red Corner

Luke Barnatt

Blue Corner

+115

(47%)

Vegas Odds

-135

(57%)

1490

Elo

1355

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'6"

180.34 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mark MunozL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Chris Weidman · Jul 12

vs Tim Boetsch · Jul 13

KOvs Lyoto Machida · Oct 13

SUBvs Gegard Mousasi · May 14

SUBvs Roan Carneiro · Feb 15

latest

Luke BarnattL2 streak

oldest →

vs Collin Hart · Apr 13

SUBvs Andrew Craig · Oct 13

KOvs Mats Nilsson · Mar 14

vs Sean Strickland · May 14

vs Roger Narvaez · Nov 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mark MunozMetricLuke Barnatt

3.12

Strikes / min

4.43

2.26

Strikes absorbed / min

3.87

57%

Strike defense

59%

3.17

TDs / 15 min

0.63

57%

Takedown defense

63%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.86evenly matched on net striking+0.56

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mark MunozLuke Barnatt

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mark Munoz(10 fights)Luke Barnatt(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +135.7|Blue -135.7

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -2.0|Blue +2.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -98.0|Blue +98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mark MunozTargetLuke Barnatt

By target zone

49% acc · 86%

Head

36% acc · 64%

44% acc · 11%

Body

67% acc · 33%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

100% acc · 2%

By position

44% acc · 51%

Distance

31% acc · 48%

56% acc · 14%

Clinch

71% acc · 48%

57% acc · 34%

Ground

67% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mark Munoz rounds

even

Luke Barnatt rounds

Round 1Mark Munoz edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns4

Control2:49

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control2:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Mark Munoz edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns4

Control3:04

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

35 / 71

Sig Strikes

42 / 96

50.7%

Sig Str %

43.7%

43 / 79

Total Strikes

98 / 154

9 / 16

TDs

1 / 2

54.3%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

7:53

Ctrl Time

0:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Luke Barnatt	15 / 37	35 / 57	1 / 1
1	Mark Munoz	15 / 38	16 / 39	4 / 8
2	Luke Barnatt	12 / 30	37 / 56	0 / 1
2	Mark Munoz	5 / 13	9 / 17	1 / 3
3	Luke Barnatt	15 / 29	26 / 41	0 / 0
3	Mark Munoz	15 / 20	18 / 23	4 / 5

Mark Munoz

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights12

Luke Barnatt

StanceOrthodox

Height78.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights6