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Middleweight

5 Rounds

Gegard Mousasi won · SUB R1

Elo1490

Elo1491

Mark MunozvsGegard MousasiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousasi · Saturday, May 31, 2014Berlin, Germany

Official fight result

Gegard Mousasi won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:57

Style matchupMark Munoz: WrestlervsGegard Mousasi: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Mark Munoz wins(69.6%)

Actual result: Gegard Mousasi wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mark Munoz at +235 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gegard Mousasi enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Gegard Mousasi has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Gegard Mousasi has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Mark Munoz

Red Corner

Gegard Mousasi

Blue Corner

+235

(30%)

Vegas Odds

-255

(72%)

1490

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'2"

180.34 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mark Munoz

oldest →

KOvs Chris Weidman · Jul 12

vs Tim Boetsch · Jul 13

KOvs Lyoto Machida · Oct 13

SUBvs Roan Carneiro · Feb 15

vs Luke Barnatt · May 15

latest

Gegard MousasiW5 streak

oldest →

vs Thales Leites · Feb 16

KOvs Thiago Santos · Jul 16

KOvs Vitor Belfort · Oct 16

KOvs Uriah Hall · Nov 16

KOvs Chris Weidman · Apr 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mark MunozMetricGegard Mousasi

3.12

Strikes / min

3.75

2.26

Strikes absorbed / min

1.21

57%

Strike defense

68%

3.17

TDs / 15 min

1.59

57%

Takedown defense

59%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.86Δ 1.68 — meaningful gap+2.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mark MunozGegard Mousasi

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mark Munoz(10 fights)Gegard Mousasi(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +112.0|Blue -112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mark MunozTargetGegard Mousasi

By target zone

25% acc · 67%

Head

54% acc · 72%

Body

100% acc · 11%

100% acc · 33%

Leg

100% acc · 17%

By position

33% acc · 100%

Distance

64% acc · 39%

Clinch

100% acc · 11%

Ground

56% acc · 50%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mark Munoz rounds

even

Gegard Mousasi rounds

Round 1Gegard Mousasi edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:13

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:32Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

3 / 9

Sig Strikes

18 / 29

33%

Sig Str %

62%

3 / 9

Total Strikes

30 / 47

0 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:13

Ctrl Time

1:32

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Gegard Mousasi	18 / 29	30 / 47	0 / 0	2
1	Mark Munoz	3 / 9	3 / 9	0 / 6	0

Mark Munoz

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights12

Gegard Mousasi

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights12