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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Mark Munoz won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1402

Mark MunozvsDemian MaiaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin · Saturday, June 11, 2011Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Official fight result

Mark Munoz won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMark Munoz: WrestlervsDemian Maia: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Demian Maia wins(52.6%)

Actual result: Mark Munoz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Demian Maia at +140 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Demian Maia (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Mark Munoz

Red Corner

Demian Maia

Blue Corner

-150

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1490

Elo

1402

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'1"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mark Munoz

oldest →

vs Tim Boetsch · Jul 13

KOvs Lyoto Machida · Oct 13

SUBvs Gegard Mousasi · May 14

SUBvs Roan Carneiro · Feb 15

vs Luke Barnatt · May 15

latest

Demian MaiaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Lyman Good · Feb 19

DECvs Rocco Martin · Jun 19

SUBvs Ben Askren · Oct 19

KOvs Gilbert Burns · Mar 20

vs Belal Muhammad · Jun 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mark MunozMetricDemian Maia

3.12

Strikes / min

1.80

2.26

Strikes absorbed / min

2.07

57%

Strike defense

63%

3.17

TDs / 15 min

2.49

57%

Takedown defense

61%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.86Δ 1.13 — meaningful gap-0.27

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mark MunozDemian Maia

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mark Munoz(10 fights)Demian Maia(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +88.0|Blue -88.0

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -89.0|Blue +89.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mark MunozTargetDemian Maia

By target zone

35% acc · 43%

Head

31% acc · 59%

86% acc · 27%

Body

73% acc · 25%

100% acc · 30%

Leg

83% acc · 16%

By position

36% acc · 41%

Distance

31% acc · 63%

75% acc · 7%

Clinch

86% acc · 38%

85% acc · 52%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mark Munoz rounds

even

Demian Maia rounds

Round 1Demian Maia edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:24

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:55Control

Round 2Mark Munoz edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns1

Control2:58

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:31Control

Round 3Mark Munoz edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns2

Control2:00

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:26Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

44 / 81

Sig Strikes

32 / 78

50.3%

Sig Str %

38%

75 / 115

Total Strikes

40 / 87

3 / 7

TDs

0 / 7

46.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

5:22

Ctrl Time

1:52

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Demian Maia	20 / 45	23 / 49	0 / 0	0
1	Mark Munoz	5 / 22	7 / 24	0 / 1	0
2	Demian Maia	4 / 13	4 / 13	0 / 5	1
2	Mark Munoz	28 / 31	53 / 59	1 / 1	1
3	Demian Maia	8 / 20	13 / 25	0 / 2	1
3	Mark Munoz	11 / 28	15 / 32	2 / 5	0

Mark Munoz

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights12

Demian Maia

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights26