Lightweight

3 Rounds

Mark Madsen won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1486

Elo1376

Mark MadsenvsDanilo BelluardoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier · Saturday, September 28, 2019Copenhagen, Denmark

Official fight result

Mark Madsen won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:12

Style matchupMark Madsen: WrestlervsDanilo Belluardo: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Mark Madsen wins(76.4%)

Actual result: Mark Madsen wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mark Madsen at -600 American odds

+$17 profit

$117 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mark Madsen has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Danilo Belluardo (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Mark Madsen

Red Corner

Danilo Belluardo

Blue Corner

-600

(86%)

Vegas Odds

+450

(18%)

1486

Elo

1376

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mark MadsenL2 streak

oldest →

vs Austin Hubbard · Mar 20

vs Clay Guida · Aug 21

vs Vinc Pichel · Apr 22

SUBvs Grant Dawson · Nov 22

KOvs Jared Gordon · Nov 23

latest

Danilo Belluardo

oldest →

KOvs Joel Alvarez · Jun 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mark MadsenMetricDanilo Belluardo

3.56

Strikes / min

1.52

3.97

Strikes absorbed / min

4.79

52%

Strike defense

41%

2.86

TDs / 15 min

3.50

62%

Takedown defense

50%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.41Δ 2.86 — meaningful gap-3.27

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mark MadsenDanilo Belluardo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mark Madsen(6 fights)Danilo Belluardo(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +109.4|Blue -109.4

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Grappler Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mark MadsenTargetDanilo Belluardo

By target zone

76% acc · 100%

Head

0% acc

Body

Leg

By position

0% acc

Distance

0% acc

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

81% acc · 95%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mark Madsen rounds

even

Danilo Belluardo rounds

Round 1Mark Madsen edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control0:51

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 29

Sig Strikes

0 / 1

75%

Sig Str %

24 / 31

Total Strikes

0 / 1

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:51

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Danilo Belluardo	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0
1	Mark Madsen	22 / 29	24 / 31	1 / 2	0

Mark Madsen

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights6

Danilo Belluardo

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights2