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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Mark Madsen won · U-DEC R3

Elo1486

Elo1478

Mark MadsenvsAustin HubbardUFC Prediction Result

UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero · Saturday, March 7, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Mark Madsen won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMark Madsen: WrestlervsAustin Hubbard: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Mark Madsen wins(71.4%)

Actual result: Mark Madsen wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mark Madsen at -215 American odds

+$47 profit

$147 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Austin Hubbard enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Mark Madsen

Red Corner

Austin Hubbard

Blue Corner

-215

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+195

(34%)

1486

Elo

1478

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'10"

182.88 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mark MadsenL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Danilo Belluardo · Sep 19

vs Clay Guida · Aug 21

vs Vinc Pichel · Apr 22

SUBvs Grant Dawson · Nov 22

KOvs Jared Gordon · Nov 23

latest

Austin HubbardL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Kurt Holobaugh · Aug 23

vs Michal Figlak · Apr 24

vs Alexander Hernandez · Oct 24

vs MarQuel Mederos · Mar 25

vs Rongzhu · Aug 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mark MadsenMetricAustin Hubbard

3.56

Strikes / min

3.97

Strikes absorbed / min

4.10

52%

Strike defense

55%

2.86

TDs / 15 min

1.63

62%

Takedown defense

68%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.41evenly matched on net striking-0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mark MadsenAustin Hubbard

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mark Madsen(6 fights)Austin Hubbard(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +8.2|Blue -8.2

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mark MadsenTargetAustin Hubbard

By target zone

25% acc · 93%

Head

52% acc · 61%

Body

57% acc · 20%

100% acc · 7%

Leg

62% acc · 20%

By position

12% acc · 33%

Distance

55% acc · 90%

60% acc · 20%

Clinch

50% acc · 10%

64% acc · 47%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mark Madsen rounds

even

Austin Hubbard rounds

Round 1Mark Madsen edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns3

Control3:41

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Mark Madsen edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns3

Control2:41

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Austin Hubbard edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns2

Control1:39

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

15 / 58

Sig Strikes

41 / 75

21%

Sig Str %

49%

20 / 65

Total Strikes

45 / 79

8 / 12

TDs

0 / 0

67%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

8:01

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Austin Hubbard	6 / 14	8 / 16	0 / 0
1	Mark Madsen	0 / 9	2 / 12	3 / 4
2	Austin Hubbard	8 / 22	9 / 23	0 / 0
2	Mark Madsen	9 / 21	11 / 23	3 / 5
3	Austin Hubbard	27 / 39	28 / 40	0 / 0
3	Mark Madsen	6 / 28	7 / 30	2 / 3

Mark Madsen

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights6

Austin Hubbard

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights12