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Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Mark Hunt won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1369

Elo1491

Mark HuntvsRoy NelsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson · Saturday, September 20, 2014Saitama, Japan

Official fight result

Mark Hunt won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:00

Model Prediction: Mark Hunt wins(69.8%)

Actual result: Mark Hunt wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mark Hunt at -120 American odds

+$83 profit

$183 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mark Hunt enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Roy Nelson is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Mark Hunt has lost 50% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Mark Hunt

Red Corner

Roy Nelson

Blue Corner

-120

(55%)

Vegas Odds

+110

(48%)

1369

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mark HuntL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alistair Overeem · Mar 17

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Jun 17

vs Curtis Blaydes · Feb 18

SUBvs Aleksei Oleinik · Sep 18

vs Justin Willis · Dec 18

latest

Roy Nelson

oldest →

vs Josh Barnett · Sep 15

vs Jared Rosholt · Feb 16

vs Derrick Lewis · Jul 16

KOvs Antonio Silva · Sep 16

vs Alexander Volkov · Apr 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mark HuntMetricRoy Nelson

2.81

Strikes / min

2.18

2.90

Strikes absorbed / min

4.79

51%

Strike defense

46%

0.51

TDs / 15 min

1.14

64%

Takedown defense

65%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.09Δ 2.52 — meaningful gap-2.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mark HuntRoy Nelson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mark Hunt(10 fights)Roy Nelson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -121.7|Blue +121.7

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +321.0|Blue -321.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mark HuntTargetRoy Nelson

By target zone

33% acc · 88%

Head

30% acc · 80%

60% acc · 9%

Body

67% acc · 10%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

67% acc · 10%

By position

33% acc · 88%

Distance

33% acc · 100%

67% acc · 13%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mark Hunt rounds

even

Roy Nelson rounds

Round 1Mark Hunt edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Mark Hunt edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:19Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 91

Sig Strikes

20 / 60

35%

Sig Str %

34%

32 / 91

Total Strikes

20 / 60

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 6

—

TD %

16.5%

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Roy Nelson	11 / 37	11 / 37	0 / 3
1	Mark Hunt	16 / 48	16 / 48	0 / 0
2	Roy Nelson	9 / 23	9 / 23	1 / 3
2	Mark Hunt	16 / 43	16 / 43	0 / 0

Mark Hunt

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights16

Roy Nelson

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights18