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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Justin Willis won · U-DEC R3

Elo1369

Elo1492

Mark HuntvsJustin WillisUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa · Saturday, December 1, 2018Adelaide, South Australia, Australia

Official fight result

Justin Willis won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Justin Willis wins(62.8%)

Actual result: Justin Willis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Justin Willis at -110 American odds

+$91 profit

$191 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mark Hunt has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Justin Willis (53.5%).
Justin Willis has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Mark Hunt

Red Corner

Justin Willis

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1369

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

6'1"

182.88 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mark HuntL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Frank Mir · Mar 16

KOvs Alistair Overeem · Mar 17

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Jun 17

vs Curtis Blaydes · Feb 18

SUBvs Aleksei Oleinik · Sep 18

latest

Justin Willis

oldest →

vs James Mulheron · Jul 17

KOvs Allen Crowder · Dec 17

vs Chase Sherman · Apr 18

vs Curtis Blaydes · Mar 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mark HuntMetricJustin Willis

2.81

Strikes / min

3.37

2.90

Strikes absorbed / min

2.57

51%

Strike defense

57%

0.51

TDs / 15 min

0.96

64%

Takedown defense

36%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.09evenly matched on net striking+0.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mark HuntJustin Willis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mark Hunt(10 fights)Justin Willis(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -122.5|Blue +122.5

Recent Form

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -147.0|Blue +147.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mark HuntTargetJustin Willis

By target zone

8% acc · 16%

Head

54% acc · 76%

61% acc · 58%

Body

50% acc · 5%

100% acc · 26%

Leg

85% acc · 19%

By position

32% acc · 100%

Distance

57% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mark Hunt rounds

even

Justin Willis rounds

Round 1Mark Hunt edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Justin Willis edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Justin Willis edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

19 / 60

Sig Strikes

59 / 103

31.7%

Sig Str %

53.3%

19 / 60

Total Strikes

59 / 103

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Justin Willis	6 / 21	6 / 21	0 / 0
1	Mark Hunt	9 / 21	9 / 21	0 / 0
2	Justin Willis	22 / 30	22 / 30	0 / 0
2	Mark Hunt	6 / 17	6 / 17	0 / 0
3	Justin Willis	31 / 52	31 / 52	0 / 0
3	Mark Hunt	4 / 22	4 / 22	0 / 0

Mark Hunt

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights16

Justin Willis

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights5