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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Curtis Blaydes won · U-DEC R3

Elo1369

Elo1495

Mark HuntvsCurtis BlaydesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold · Saturday, February 10, 2018Perth, Western Australia, Australia

Official fight result

Curtis Blaydes won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMark Hunt: Well-roundedvsCurtis Blaydes: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Curtis Blaydes wins(70.3%)

Actual result: Curtis Blaydes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Curtis Blaydes at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mark Hunt is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Curtis Blaydes has lost 83% of fights by KO.
Curtis Blaydes is a KO finisher (57% of wins). Mark Hunt has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Mark Hunt has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Curtis Blaydes has a 20cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Mark Hunt

Red Corner

Curtis Blaydes

Blue Corner

+165

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-190

(66%)

1369

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'4"

182.88 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mark HuntL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Frank Mir · Mar 16

KOvs Alistair Overeem · Mar 17

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Jun 17

SUBvs Aleksei Oleinik · Sep 18

vs Justin Willis · Dec 18

latest

Curtis Blaydes

oldest →

KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Apr 23

KOvs Jailton Almeida · Mar 24

KOvs Tom Aspinall · Jul 24

vs Rizvan Kuniev · Jun 25

DECvs Josh Hokit · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mark HuntMetricCurtis Blaydes

2.81

Strikes / min

4.18

2.90

Strikes absorbed / min

2.76

51%

Strike defense

53%

0.51

TDs / 15 min

5.12

64%

Takedown defense

35%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.09Δ 1.51 — meaningful gap+1.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mark HuntCurtis Blaydes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mark Hunt(10 fights)Curtis Blaydes(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -126.4|Blue +126.4

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +147.0|Blue -147.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mark HuntTargetCurtis Blaydes

By target zone

42% acc · 93%

Head

48% acc · 82%

Body

100% acc · 11%

100% acc · 7%

Leg

100% acc · 7%

By position

38% acc · 79%

Distance

20% acc · 20%

100% acc · 14%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

100% acc · 7%

Ground

88% acc · 79%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mark Hunt rounds

even

Curtis Blaydes rounds

Round 1Curtis Blaydes edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns1

9Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

2:16Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Curtis Blaydes edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:01

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:37Control

Round 3Curtis Blaydes edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:05

31Sig. strikes

6Takedowns

4:42Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 32

Sig Strikes

56 / 105

41.3%

Sig Str %

52%

35 / 53

Total Strikes

126 / 184

0 / 0

TDs

10 / 14

—

TD %

66.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:07

Ctrl Time

9:35

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Curtis Blaydes	9 / 35	29 / 60	3 / 4
1	Mark Hunt	11 / 21	15 / 25	0 / 0
2	Curtis Blaydes	16 / 32	36 / 53	1 / 4
2	Mark Hunt	2 / 9	13 / 20	0 / 0
3	Curtis Blaydes	31 / 38	61 / 71	6 / 6
3	Mark Hunt	1 / 2	7 / 8	0 / 0

Mark Hunt

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights16

Curtis Blaydes

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights19