← All fights/Event page

Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Aleksei Oleinik won · SUB R1

Elo1369

Elo1495

Mark HuntvsAleksei OleinikUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Oleinik · Saturday, September 15, 2018Moscow, Moscow, Russia

Official fight result

Aleksei Oleinik won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:26

Style matchupMark Hunt: Well-roundedvsAleksei Oleinik: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Aleksei Oleinik wins(52.1%)

Actual result: Aleksei Oleinik wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Aleksei Oleinik at +100 American odds

+$100 profit

$200 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mark Hunt is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Aleksei Oleinik has lost 63% of fights by KO.
Mark Hunt has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Aleksei Oleinik has a 20cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Mark Hunt

Red Corner

Aleksei Oleinik

Blue Corner

-120

(55%)

Vegas Odds

+100

(50%)

1369

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'2"

182.88 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mark HuntL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Frank Mir · Mar 16

KOvs Alistair Overeem · Mar 17

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Jun 17

vs Curtis Blaydes · Feb 18

vs Justin Willis · Dec 18

latest

Aleksei Oleinik

oldest →

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Aug 20

KOvs Chris Daukaus · Feb 21

vs Serghei Spivac · Jun 21

SUBvs Jared Vanderaa · Apr 22

vs Ilir Latifi · Oct 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mark HuntMetricAleksei Oleinik

2.81

Strikes / min

3.29

2.90

Strikes absorbed / min

3.80

51%

Strike defense

44%

0.51

TDs / 15 min

1.82

64%

Takedown defense

37%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.09evenly matched on net striking-0.51

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mark HuntAleksei Oleinik

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mark Hunt(10 fights)Aleksei Oleinik(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -126.2|Blue +126.2

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +91.0|Blue -91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mark HuntTargetAleksei Oleinik

By target zone

10% acc · 33%

Head

9% acc · 67%

0% acc

Body

80% acc · 67%

Leg

25% acc · 33%

By position

22% acc · 100%

Distance

12% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mark Hunt rounds

even

Aleksei Oleinik rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

3Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:42Control

Fight Stats

Totals

6 / 27

Sig Strikes

3 / 26

22%

Sig Str %

11%

6 / 27

Total Strikes

3 / 26

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 5

—

TD %

20%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:42

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Aleksei Oleinik	3 / 26	3 / 26	1 / 5	1
1	Mark Hunt	6 / 27	6 / 27	0 / 0	0

Mark Hunt

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights16

Aleksei Oleinik

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights17