← All fights/Event page

Featherweight

3 Rounds

Pablo Garza won · U-DEC R3

Elo1352

Elo1490

Mark HominickvsPablo GarzaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit · Saturday, November 17, 2012Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

Pablo Garza won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMark Hominick: Pressure fightervsPablo Garza: Submission grappler

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Mark Hominick wins(50.6%)

Actual result: Pablo Garza wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mark Hominick at -280 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mark Hominick enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Pablo Garza enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Mark Hominick has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Mark Hominick has 56pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Pablo Garza has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Mark Hominick

Red Corner

Pablo Garza

Blue Corner

-280

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+255

(28%)

1352

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

6'1"

172.72 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mark HominickL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs George Roop · Jan 11

vs Jose Aldo · Apr 11

KOvs Chan Sung Jung · Dec 11

vs Eddie Yagin · Apr 12

latest

Pablo GarzaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Fredson Paixao · Dec 10

SUBvs Yves Jabouin · Apr 11

SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Nov 11

vs Dennis Bermudez · May 12

SUBvs Diego Brandao · Apr 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mark HominickMetricPablo Garza

4.08

Strikes / min

3.37

4.18

Strikes absorbed / min

2.70

69%

Strike defense

50%

0.25

TDs / 15 min

0.94

71%

Takedown defense

15%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.10evenly matched on net striking+0.67

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mark HominickPablo Garza

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mark Hominick(5 fights)Pablo Garza(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -138.4|Blue +138.4

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mark HominickTargetPablo Garza

By target zone

46% acc · 46%

Head

34% acc · 65%

74% acc · 36%

Body

73% acc · 23%

88% acc · 18%

Leg

100% acc · 12%

By position

52% acc · 67%

Distance

33% acc · 47%

50% acc · 3%

Clinch

40% acc · 5%

86% acc · 31%

Ground

57% acc · 48%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mark Hominick rounds

even

Pablo Garza rounds

Round 1Mark Hominick edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns1

Control0:56

Knockdowns1

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Pablo Garza edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:02

29Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:17Control

Round 3Pablo Garza edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:02

22Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:55Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 66

Sig Strikes

83 / 197

48%

Sig Str %

44.7%

78 / 109

Total Strikes

149 / 275

1 / 1

TDs

2 / 5

100%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

1:00

Ctrl Time

8:24

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Pablo Garza	32 / 98	33 / 99	0 / 2	1
1	Mark Hominick	33 / 51	38 / 56	1 / 1	0
2	Pablo Garza	29 / 57	59 / 93	1 / 1	0
2	Mark Hominick	2 / 5	11 / 15	0 / 0	0
3	Pablo Garza	22 / 42	57 / 83	1 / 2	0
3	Mark Hominick	4 / 10	29 / 38	0 / 0	0

Mark Hominick

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights5

Pablo Garza

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights6