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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Chan Sung Jung won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1352
Mark Hominick
Elo1474
Chan Sung Jung

Mark HominickvsChan Sung JungUFC Prediction Result

UFC 140: Jones vs Machida · Saturday, December 10, 2011Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Chan Sung Jung won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:07

Style matchupMark Hominick: Pressure fightervsChan Sung Jung: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Mark Hominick wins(61.8%)

Actual result: Chan Sung Jung wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mark Hominick at -560 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Mark Hominick enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Mark Hominick is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Chan Sung Jung has lost 80% of fights by KO.
  • Mark Hominick has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Chan Sung Jung has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Mark Hominick
Red Corner
VS
Chan Sung Jung
Blue Corner
-560
(85%)
Vegas Odds
+475
(17%)
1352
Elo
1474
44
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'7"
172.72 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mark HominickL3 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs George Roop · Jan 11
L
vs Jose Aldo · Apr 11
L
vs Eddie Yagin · Apr 12
L
vs Pablo Garza · Nov 12
latest
Chan Sung JungL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Frankie Edgar · Dec 19
L
vs Brian Ortega · Oct 20
W
vs Dan Ige · Jun 21
L
KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Apr 22
L
KOvs Max Holloway · Aug 23
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mark HominickMetricChan Sung Jung
4.08
Strikes / min
3.93
4.18
Strikes absorbed / min
4.52
69%
Strike defense
52%
0.25
TDs / 15 min
0.70
71%
Takedown defense
72%
0.90
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.10evenly matched on net striking-0.59

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1499 vs 1517Strikes36.3 vs 30.0Takedowns0.3 vs 1.0Sub Atts0.25 vs 1.00Form-0.1 vs 1.0
Mark HominickChan Sung Jung

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Mark Hominick(5 fights)Chan Sung Jung(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -122.0|Blue +122.0
Recent Form
Red -1.1|Blue +1.1
Striker Score
Red +1.9|Blue -1.9
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red -35.0|Blue +35.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mark HominickTargetChan Sung Jung

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
6
60% acc · 100%
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0

By position

0
0% acc
Distance
1
50% acc · 17%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
5
63% acc · 83%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Mark Hominick rounds
0
even
1
Chan Sung Jung rounds
Round 1Chan Sung Jung edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
0 / 1
Sig Strikes
6 / 10
0%
Sig Str %
60%
0 / 1
Total Strikes
6 / 10
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:03

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Chan Sung Jung6 / 106 / 100 / 00
1Mark Hominick0 / 10 / 10 / 00

Mark Hominick

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights5

Chan Sung Jung

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights12