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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Dmitry Sosnovskiy won · SUB R2

Elo1491

Mark GodbeervsDmitry SosnovskiyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov · Saturday, March 17, 2018London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Dmitry Sosnovskiy won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:29

Style matchupMark Godbeer: StrikervsDmitry Sosnovskiy: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Mark Godbeer wins(73.7%)

Actual result: Dmitry Sosnovskiy wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mark Godbeer at +220 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Dmitry Sosnovskiy threatens submissions; Mark Godbeer has lost 100% of fights by sub.
Mark Godbeer has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Dmitry Sosnovskiy has 72pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Mark Godbeer

Red Corner

Dmitry Sosnovskiy

Blue Corner

+220

(31%)

Vegas Odds

-260

(72%)

1491

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'3"

195.58 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mark GodbeerW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Justin Ledet · Nov 16

vs Daniel Spitz · Mar 17

vs Walt Harris · Nov 17

latest

Dmitry SosnovskiyNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mark GodbeerMetricDmitry Sosnovskiy

3.97

Strikes / min

2.95

3.30

Strikes absorbed / min

2.53

54%

Strike defense

35%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

3.16

28%

Takedown defense

100%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

3.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.67evenly matched on net striking+0.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mark GodbeerDmitry Sosnovskiy

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mark Godbeer(4 fights)Dmitry Sosnovskiy(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -48.7|Blue +48.7

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mark GodbeerTargetDmitry Sosnovskiy

By target zone

46% acc · 46%

Head

69% acc · 79%

100% acc · 50%

Body

71% acc · 18%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

41% acc · 29%

Distance

56% acc · 36%

75% acc · 13%

Clinch

63% acc · 18%

88% acc · 58%

Ground

93% acc · 46%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mark Godbeer rounds

even

Dmitry Sosnovskiy rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control1:35

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:20Control

Round 2Dmitry Sosnovskiy edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control1:55

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:52Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 37

Sig Strikes

28 / 40

63.5%

Sig Str %

69%

73 / 91

Total Strikes

53 / 71

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 3

TD %

75%

Sub Att

Rev

3:30

Ctrl Time

4:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Dmitry Sosnovskiy	11 / 18	25 / 35	1 / 2	0
1	Mark Godbeer	16 / 24	43 / 53	0 / 0	0
2	Dmitry Sosnovskiy	17 / 22	28 / 36	1 / 1	2
2	Mark Godbeer	8 / 13	30 / 38	0 / 1	0

Mark Godbeer

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights4

Dmitry Sosnovskiy

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights1