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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Mark Godbeer won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1377

Mark GodbeervsDaniel SpitzUFC Prediction Result

UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 · Saturday, March 4, 2017Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Mark Godbeer won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Mark Godbeer wins(68.3%)

Actual result: Mark Godbeer wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mark Godbeer at -145 American odds

+$69 profit

$169 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mark Godbeer has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Daniel Spitz has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Mark Godbeer

Red Corner

Daniel Spitz

Blue Corner

-145

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+125

(44%)

1491

Elo

1377

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'7"

195.58 cm

Reach

208.28 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mark Godbeer

oldest →

SUBvs Justin Ledet · Nov 16

vs Walt Harris · Nov 17

SUBvs Dmitry Sosnovskiy · Mar 18

latest

Daniel SpitzL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Anthony Hamilton · Sep 17

KOvs Walt Harris · Jun 18

vs Tanner Boser · Oct 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mark GodbeerMetricDaniel Spitz

3.97

Strikes / min

2.60

3.30

Strikes absorbed / min

5.30

54%

Strike defense

46%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.74

28%

Takedown defense

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.67Δ 3.37 — meaningful gap-2.70

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mark GodbeerDaniel Spitz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mark Godbeer(4 fights)Daniel Spitz(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +114.0|Blue -114.0

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mark GodbeerTargetDaniel Spitz

By target zone

45% acc · 54%

Head

29% acc · 65%

73% acc · 32%

Body

81% acc · 25%

81% acc · 14%

Leg

71% acc · 10%

By position

52% acc · 80%

Distance

35% acc · 84%

72% acc · 20%

Clinch

62% acc · 16%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mark Godbeer rounds

even

Daniel Spitz rounds

Round 1Mark Godbeer edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:01

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Mark Godbeer edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:32

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:59Control

Round 3Mark Godbeer edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:40

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

92 / 167

Sig Strikes

51 / 136

55%

Sig Str %

38%

100 / 176

Total Strikes

74 / 160

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 2

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

1:13

Ctrl Time

1:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Daniel Spitz	16 / 46	17 / 47	0 / 0
1	Mark Godbeer	33 / 64	33 / 64	0 / 0
2	Daniel Spitz	20 / 39	28 / 48	1 / 2
2	Mark Godbeer	32 / 56	37 / 62	0 / 0
3	Daniel Spitz	15 / 51	29 / 65	0 / 0
3	Mark Godbeer	27 / 47	30 / 50	0 / 0

Mark Godbeer

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights4

Daniel Spitz

StanceOrthodox

Height79.0"

Reach82.0"

Fights4