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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Raulian Paiva won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1385

Elo1429

Mark De La RosavsRaulian PaivaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz · Saturday, February 15, 2020Rio Rancho, New Mexico, USA

Official fight result

Raulian Paiva won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:42

Model Prediction: Raulian Paiva wins(65.0%)

Actual result: Raulian Paiva wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Raulian Paiva at -245 American odds

+$41 profit

$141 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mark De La Rosa enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Raulian Paiva has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Raulian Paiva has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Mark De La Rosa

Red Corner

Raulian Paiva

Blue Corner

+205

(33%)

Vegas Odds

-245

(71%)

1385

Elo

1429

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'8"

165.1 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mark De La RosaL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Elias Garcia · Jul 18

vs Joby Sanchez · Nov 18

vs Alex Perez · Mar 19

vs Kai Kara-France · Aug 19

vs Jordan Espinosa · Jun 20

latest

Raulian PaivaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Rogerio Bontorin · Aug 19

DECvs Zhalgas Zhamagulov · Jul 20

vs Kyler Phillips · Jul 21

KOvs Sean O'Malley · Dec 21

vs Sergey Morozov · Jun 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mark De La RosaMetricRaulian Paiva

3.13

Strikes / min

4.14

5.00

Strikes absorbed / min

5.01

48%

Strike defense

48%

0.54

TDs / 15 min

0.65

40%

Takedown defense

77%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.87evenly matched on net striking-0.87

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mark De La RosaRaulian Paiva

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mark De La Rosa(7 fights)Raulian Paiva(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -44.0|Blue +44.0

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mark De La RosaTargetRaulian Paiva

By target zone

23% acc · 47%

Head

34% acc · 61%

63% acc · 33%

Body

77% acc · 19%

100% acc · 20%

Leg

73% acc · 20%

By position

36% acc · 98%

Distance

39% acc · 83%

50% acc · 2%

Clinch

89% acc · 15%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mark De La Rosa rounds

even

Raulian Paiva rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:06Control

Round 2Raulian Paiva edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:41Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

45 / 124

Sig Strikes

54 / 126

36%

Sig Str %

42%

45 / 124

Total Strikes

67 / 139

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Raulian Paiva	19 / 62	31 / 74	0 / 0
1	Mark De La Rosa	22 / 57	22 / 57	0 / 1
2	Raulian Paiva	35 / 64	36 / 65	0 / 0
2	Mark De La Rosa	23 / 67	23 / 67	0 / 1

Mark De La Rosa

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights7

Raulian Paiva

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights7