← All fights/Event page

Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Mark De La Rosa won · S-DEC R3

Elo1385

Elo1369

Mark De La RosavsJoby SanchezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie vs. Rodriguez · Saturday, November 10, 2018Denver, Colorado, USA

Official fight result

Mark De La Rosa won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Mark De La Rosa wins(53.0%)

Actual result: Mark De La Rosa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mark De La Rosa at -230 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mark De La Rosa enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Joby Sanchez has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Mark De La Rosa

Red Corner

Joby Sanchez

Blue Corner

-230

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+190

(34%)

1385

Elo

1369

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'6"

165.1 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mark De La RosaL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Elias Garcia · Jul 18

vs Alex Perez · Mar 19

vs Kai Kara-France · Aug 19

KOvs Raulian Paiva · Feb 20

vs Jordan Espinosa · Jun 20

latest

Joby SanchezL2 streak

oldest →

vs Wilson Reis · Aug 14

vs Tateki Matsuda · Jan 15

KOvs Geane Herrera · Dec 15

SUBvs Roberto Sanchez · Feb 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mark De La RosaMetricJoby Sanchez

3.13

Strikes / min

3.22

5.00

Strikes absorbed / min

2.82

48%

Strike defense

63%

0.54

TDs / 15 min

0.95

40%

Takedown defense

51%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.87Δ 2.27 — meaningful gap+0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mark De La RosaJoby Sanchez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mark De La Rosa(7 fights)Joby Sanchez(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +16.3|Blue -16.3

Recent Form

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Striker Score

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -146.0|Blue +146.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mark De La RosaTargetJoby Sanchez

By target zone

26% acc · 52%

Head

41% acc · 82%

93% acc · 20%

Body

75% acc · 16%

86% acc · 29%

Leg

100% acc · 2%

By position

37% acc · 80%

Distance

44% acc · 93%

59% acc · 20%

Clinch

57% acc · 7%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mark De La Rosa rounds

even

Joby Sanchez rounds

Round 1Mark De La Rosa edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:47

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

Round 2Mark De La Rosa edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:38

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:02Control

Round 3Joby Sanchez edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:28

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

66 / 167

Sig Strikes

55 / 124

38.3%

Sig Str %

43.7%

68 / 169

Total Strikes

85 / 155

0 / 7

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:53

Ctrl Time

1:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Joby Sanchez	19 / 41	19 / 41	0 / 0
1	Mark De La Rosa	23 / 60	23 / 60	0 / 1
2	Joby Sanchez	13 / 41	39 / 68	0 / 1
2	Mark De La Rosa	31 / 58	32 / 59	0 / 2
3	Joby Sanchez	23 / 42	27 / 46	0 / 0
3	Mark De La Rosa	12 / 49	13 / 50	0 / 4

Mark De La Rosa

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights7

Joby Sanchez

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights5