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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Mark De La Rosa won · SUB R2

Elo1385

Elo1369

Mark De La RosavsElias GarciaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov · Saturday, July 14, 2018Boise, Idaho, USA

Official fight result

Mark De La Rosa won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:00

Model Prediction: Mark De La Rosa wins(55.9%)

Actual result: Mark De La Rosa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mark De La Rosa at +115 American odds

+$115 profit

$215 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mark De La Rosa enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Mark De La Rosa threatens submissions; Elias Garcia has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Elias Garcia (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Mark De La Rosa

Red Corner

Elias Garcia

Blue Corner

+115

(47%)

Vegas Odds

-135

(57%)

1385

Elo

1369

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'6"

Height

5'5"

165.1 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mark De La RosaL4 streak

oldest →

vs Joby Sanchez · Nov 18

vs Alex Perez · Mar 19

vs Kai Kara-France · Aug 19

KOvs Raulian Paiva · Feb 20

vs Jordan Espinosa · Jun 20

latest

Elias Garcia

oldest →

vs Kai Kara-France · Dec 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mark De La RosaMetricElias Garcia

3.13

Strikes / min

1.59

5.00

Strikes absorbed / min

5.05

48%

Strike defense

50%

0.54

TDs / 15 min

0.68

40%

Takedown defense

33%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.87Δ 1.59 — meaningful gap-3.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mark De La RosaElias Garcia

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mark De La Rosa(7 fights)Elias Garcia(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +15.9|Blue -15.9

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mark De La RosaTargetElias Garcia

By target zone

56% acc · 80%

Head

17% acc · 32%

67% acc · 16%

Body

50% acc · 16%

50% acc · 4%

Leg

83% acc · 53%

By position

50% acc · 68%

Distance

33% acc · 89%

60% acc · 12%

Clinch

100% acc · 11%

100% acc · 20%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mark De La Rosa rounds

even

Elias Garcia rounds

Round 1Mark De La Rosa edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control1:27

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Mark De La Rosa edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control0:44

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

25 / 44

Sig Strikes

19 / 54

55.5%

Sig Str %

35.5%

26 / 45

Total Strikes

41 / 76

2 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

75%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:11

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Elias Garcia	13 / 38	32 / 57	0 / 0	0
1	Mark De La Rosa	17 / 29	17 / 29	1 / 2	0
2	Elias Garcia	6 / 16	9 / 19	0 / 0	0
2	Mark De La Rosa	8 / 15	9 / 16	1 / 1	1

Mark De La Rosa

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights7

Elias Garcia

StanceSouthpaw

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights2