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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Rafael Dos Anjos won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1491

Mark BocekvsRafael Dos AnjosUFC Prediction Result

UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit · Saturday, November 17, 2012Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

Rafael Dos Anjos won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Rafael Dos Anjos wins(52.0%)

Actual result: Rafael Dos Anjos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rafael Dos Anjos at -210 American odds

+$48 profit

$148 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mark Bocek enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Rafael Dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Rafael Dos Anjos has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Rafael Dos Anjos (53.5%).
Mark Bocek has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Mark Bocek

Red Corner

Rafael Dos Anjos

Blue Corner

+190

(34%)

Vegas Odds

-210

(68%)

1490

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'8"

190.5 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mark BocekW3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Dustin Hazelett · Dec 10

vs Benson Henderson · Apr 11

vs Nik Lentz · Dec 11

vs John Alessio · Apr 12

vs Mike de la Torre · Apr 14

latest

Rafael Dos AnjosL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Jul 22

SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Dec 22

vs Vicente Luque · Aug 23

vs Mateusz Gamrot · Mar 24

KOvs Geoff Neal · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mark BocekMetricRafael Dos Anjos

2.34

Strikes / min

3.48

2.32

Strikes absorbed / min

3.23

60%

Strike defense

60%

3.65

TDs / 15 min

1.95

31%

Takedown defense

54%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.02evenly matched on net striking+0.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mark BocekRafael Dos Anjos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mark Bocek(7 fights)Rafael Dos Anjos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +81.0|Blue -81.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mark BocekTargetRafael Dos Anjos

By target zone

11% acc · 21%

Head

32% acc · 61%

50% acc · 16%

Body

67% acc · 26%

80% acc · 63%

Leg

70% acc · 13%

By position

26% acc · 63%

Distance

29% acc · 48%

58% acc · 37%

Clinch

67% acc · 37%

Ground

57% acc · 15%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mark Bocek rounds

even

Rafael Dos Anjos rounds

Round 1Rafael Dos Anjos edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control1:58

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Round 2Rafael Dos Anjos edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:15

14Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

3:22Control

Round 3Rafael Dos Anjos edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control1:29

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:38Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

19 / 59

Sig Strikes

54 / 134

30.7%

Sig Str %

39.7%

33 / 73

Total Strikes

90 / 172

0 / 11

TDs

4 / 5

TD %

75%

Sub Att

Rev

3:42

Ctrl Time

4:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Rafael Dos Anjos	21 / 45	30 / 54	0 / 0	0
1	Mark Bocek	10 / 24	17 / 31	0 / 5	0
2	Rafael Dos Anjos	14 / 40	34 / 62	3 / 3	0
2	Mark Bocek	4 / 15	4 / 15	0 / 3	0
3	Rafael Dos Anjos	19 / 49	26 / 56	1 / 2	0
3	Mark Bocek	5 / 20	12 / 27	0 / 3	1

Mark Bocek

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights7

Rafael Dos Anjos

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights32