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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Mark Bocek won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1395

Mark BocekvsNik LentzUFC Prediction Result

UFC 140: Jones vs Machida · Saturday, December 10, 2011Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Mark Bocek won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMark Bocek: WrestlervsNik Lentz: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Nik Lentz wins(75.4%)

Actual result: Mark Bocek wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nik Lentz at +132 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nik Lentz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Mark Bocek has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Mark Bocek has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Mark Bocek

Red Corner

Nik Lentz

Blue Corner

-142

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+132

(43%)

1490

Elo

1395

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'8"

190.5 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mark Bocek

oldest →

SUBvs Dustin Hazelett · Dec 10

vs Benson Henderson · Apr 11

vs John Alessio · Apr 12

vs Rafael Dos Anjos · Nov 12

vs Mike de la Torre · Apr 14

latest

Nik LentzL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Gray Maynard · Oct 18

vs Scott Holtzman · Feb 19

KOvs Charles Oliveira · May 19

vs Arnold Allen · Jan 20

vs Movsar Evloev · Jan 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mark BocekMetricNik Lentz

2.34

Strikes / min

3.44

2.32

Strikes absorbed / min

3.25

60%

Strike defense

50%

3.65

TDs / 15 min

3.30

31%

Takedown defense

43%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.02evenly matched on net striking+0.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mark BocekNik Lentz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mark Bocek(7 fights)Nik Lentz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +95.4|Blue -95.4

Recent Form

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Striker Score

Red -2.5|Blue +2.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -35.0|Blue +35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mark BocekTargetNik Lentz

By target zone

39% acc · 50%

Head

33% acc · 90%

84% acc · 35%

Body

33% acc · 10%

100% acc · 15%

Leg

0% acc

By position

48% acc · 26%

Distance

19% acc · 50%

100% acc · 15%

Clinch

100% acc · 40%

51% acc · 59%

Ground

100% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mark Bocek rounds

even

Nik Lentz rounds

Round 1Mark Bocek edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns2

Control3:59

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:18Control

Round 2Mark Bocek edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control3:24

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:27Control

Round 3Mark Bocek edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns2

Control4:16

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

46 / 85

Sig Strikes

10 / 31

54.7%

Sig Str %

33.7%

102 / 143

Total Strikes

123 / 145

5 / 7

TDs

0 / 0

72%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

11:39

Ctrl Time

0:45

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Nik Lentz	4 / 8	34 / 38	0 / 0	1
1	Mark Bocek	17 / 24	30 / 38	2 / 3	0
2	Nik Lentz	4 / 12	49 / 57	0 / 0	1
2	Mark Bocek	12 / 27	18 / 34	1 / 2	0
3	Nik Lentz	2 / 11	40 / 50	0 / 0	1
3	Mark Bocek	17 / 34	54 / 71	2 / 2	0

Mark Bocek

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights7

Nik Lentz

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights22