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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Mark Bocek won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1352

Mark BocekvsJohn AlessioUFC Prediction Result

UFC 145: Jones vs Evans · Saturday, April 21, 2012Atlanta, Georgia, USA

Official fight result

Mark Bocek won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMark Bocek: WrestlervsJohn Alessio: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Mark Bocek wins(59.4%)

Actual result: Mark Bocek wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mark Bocek at -290 American odds

+$34 profit

$134 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

John Alessio has 39pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mark Bocek

Red Corner

John Alessio

Blue Corner

-290

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+260

(28%)

1490

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'10"

190.5 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mark Bocek

oldest →

SUBvs Dustin Hazelett · Dec 10

vs Benson Henderson · Apr 11

vs Nik Lentz · Dec 11

vs Rafael Dos Anjos · Nov 12

vs Mike de la Torre · Apr 14

latest

John Alessio

oldest →

vs Shane Roller · Jul 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mark BocekMetricJohn Alessio

2.34

Strikes / min

2.10

2.32

Strikes absorbed / min

2.91

60%

Strike defense

54%

3.65

TDs / 15 min

1.85

31%

Takedown defense

70%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.02evenly matched on net striking-0.81

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mark BocekJohn Alessio

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mark Bocek(7 fights)John Alessio(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +138.7|Blue -138.7

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -48.9|Blue +48.9

Grappler Score

Red -49.3|Blue +49.3

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mark BocekTargetJohn Alessio

By target zone

63% acc · 68%

Head

34% acc · 76%

67% acc · 3%

Body

38% acc · 9%

92% acc · 30%

Leg

100% acc · 15%

By position

43% acc · 27%

Distance

35% acc · 82%

94% acc · 22%

Clinch

67% acc · 18%

88% acc · 51%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mark Bocek rounds

even

John Alessio rounds

Round 1Mark Bocek edged it

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns2

Control4:10

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Mark Bocek edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control2:27

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Mark Bocek edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns2

Control3:05

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

74 / 107

Sig Strikes

33 / 87

66.3%

Sig Str %

30.7%

117 / 153

Total Strikes

82 / 140

5 / 11

TDs

0 / 0

46.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

9:42

Ctrl Time

0:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	John Alessio	1 / 10	11 / 20	0 / 0
1	Mark Bocek	40 / 47	53 / 62	2 / 4
2	John Alessio	14 / 34	27 / 49	0 / 0
2	Mark Bocek	20 / 37	33 / 51	1 / 2
3	John Alessio	18 / 43	44 / 71	0 / 0
3	Mark Bocek	14 / 23	31 / 40	2 / 5

Mark Bocek

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights7

John Alessio

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights2