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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Mark Bocek won · SUB R1
Elo1490
Mark Bocek
Elo1351

Mark BocekvsDustin HazelettUFC Prediction Result

UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2 · Saturday, December 11, 2010Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

Mark Bocek won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:33

Model Prediction: Mark Bocek wins(68.0%)

Actual result: Mark Bocek wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mark Bocek at -150 American odds

+$67 profit

$167 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Mark Bocek has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Mark Bocek
Red Corner
VS
Dustin Hazelett
Blue Corner
-150
(60%)
Vegas Odds
+130
(43%)
1490
Elo
1351
44
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
6'1"
190.5 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mark Bocek
oldest →
L
vs Benson Henderson · Apr 11
W
vs Nik Lentz · Dec 11
W
vs John Alessio · Apr 12
L
vs Rafael Dos Anjos · Nov 12
W
vs Mike de la Torre · Apr 14
latest
Dustin Hazelett
oldest →
L
KOvs Rick Story · Aug 10
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mark BocekMetricDustin Hazelett
2.34
Strikes / min
2.24
2.32
Strikes absorbed / min
3.51
60%
Strike defense
46%
3.65
TDs / 15 min
0.55
31%
Takedown defense
25%
1.30
Sub atts / 15 min
4.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.02Δ 1.29 — meaningful gap-1.27

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1482 vs 1482Strikes16.9 vs 13.6Takedowns2.6 vs 0.2Sub Atts1.29 vs 1.67Form-1.0 vs -1.0
Mark BocekDustin Hazelett

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Mark Bocek(7 fights)Dustin Hazelett(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +139.4|Blue -139.4
Recent Form
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red +133.0|Blue -133.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mark BocekTargetDustin Hazelett

By target zone

7
44% acc · 78%
Head
0
0% acc
2
100% acc · 22%
Body
0
0
Leg
0

By position

0
0% acc
Distance
0
0% acc
0
Clinch
0
9
64% acc · 100%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Mark Bocek rounds
0
even
0
Dustin Hazelett rounds
Round 1Mark Bocek edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns1
Control1:49
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:32Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
9 / 18
Sig Strikes
0 / 3
50%
Sig Str %
0%
24 / 33
Total Strikes
0 / 3
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:49
Ctrl Time
0:32

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Dustin Hazelett0 / 30 / 30 / 00
1Mark Bocek9 / 1824 / 331 / 11

Mark Bocek

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights7

Dustin Hazelett

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights2