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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Benson Henderson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Mark BocekvsBenson HendersonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields · Saturday, April 30, 2011Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Benson Henderson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMark Bocek: WrestlervsBenson Henderson: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Mark Bocek wins(67.6%)

Actual result: Benson Henderson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mark Bocek at +140 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Benson Henderson has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Benson Henderson (53.5%).
Mark Bocek has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Mark Bocek

Red Corner

Benson Henderson

Blue Corner

+140

(42%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1490

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'9"

190.5 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mark Bocek

oldest →

SUBvs Dustin Hazelett · Dec 10

vs Nik Lentz · Dec 11

vs John Alessio · Apr 12

vs Rafael Dos Anjos · Nov 12

vs Mike de la Torre · Apr 14

latest

Benson HendersonW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Rustam Khabilov · Jun 14

KOvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Aug 14

vs Donald Cerrone · Jan 15

SUBvs Brandon Thatch · Feb 15

vs Jorge Masvidal · Nov 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mark BocekMetricBenson Henderson

2.34

Strikes / min

2.93

2.32

Strikes absorbed / min

1.79

60%

Strike defense

63%

3.65

TDs / 15 min

2.40

31%

Takedown defense

63%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.02Δ 1.12 — meaningful gap+1.14

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mark BocekBenson Henderson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mark Bocek(7 fights)Benson Henderson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -48.9|Blue +48.9

Grappler Score

Red -49.3|Blue +49.3

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mark BocekTargetBenson Henderson

By target zone

23% acc · 55%

Head

30% acc · 46%

60% acc · 27%

Body

76% acc · 34%

67% acc · 18%

Leg

85% acc · 20%

By position

20% acc · 36%

Distance

22% acc · 23%

57% acc · 36%

Clinch

68% acc · 54%

43% acc · 27%

Ground

54% acc · 23%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mark Bocek rounds

even

Benson Henderson rounds

Round 1Benson Henderson edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control1:31

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:05Control

Round 2Benson Henderson edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns1

Control0:57

24Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:34Control

Round 3Benson Henderson edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns2

Control1:59

18Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:52Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 34

Sig Strikes

56 / 126

30%

Sig Str %

44%

36 / 62

Total Strikes

114 / 190

4 / 11

TDs

3 / 4

38.7%

TD %

83%

Sub Att

Rev

4:27

Ctrl Time

5:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Benson Henderson	14 / 43	31 / 61	0 / 0	0
1	Mark Bocek	5 / 17	16 / 28	1 / 4	0
2	Benson Henderson	24 / 45	41 / 64	1 / 1	0
2	Mark Bocek	1 / 5	4 / 9	1 / 4	2
3	Benson Henderson	18 / 38	42 / 65	2 / 3	0
3	Mark Bocek	5 / 12	16 / 25	2 / 3	0

Mark Bocek

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights7

Benson Henderson

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights14