← All fights/Event page

Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Shana Dobson won · KO/TKO

Elo1491

Elo1493

Mariya AgapovavsShana DobsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edgar · Saturday, August 22, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Shana Dobson won

KO/TKO

Model Prediction: Mariya Agapova wins(73.4%)

Actual result: Shana Dobson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mariya Agapova at -1430 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mariya Agapova enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Shana Dobson enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Mariya Agapova has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Mariya Agapova (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Mariya Agapova

Red Corner

Shana Dobson

Blue Corner

-1430

(93%)

Vegas Odds

+750

(12%)

1491

Elo

1493

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'6"

172.72 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mariya AgapovaL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Hannah Cifers · Jun 20

SUBvs Sabina Mazo · Oct 21

SUBvs Maryna Moroz · Mar 22

SUBvs Gillian Robertson · Sep 22

SUBvs Luana Santos · Jul 24

latest

Shana DobsonL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Ariel Beck · Dec 17

vs Lauren Mueller · Apr 18

vs Sabina Mazo · Aug 19

KOvs Priscila Cachoeira · Feb 20

KOvs Casey O'Neill · Feb 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mariya AgapovaMetricShana Dobson

4.43

Strikes / min

3.34

3.62

Strikes absorbed / min

5.20

52%

Strike defense

50%

0.55

TDs / 15 min

0.84

45%

Takedown defense

14%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.81Δ 2.67 — meaningful gap-1.86

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mariya AgapovaShana Dobson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mariya Agapova(6 fights)Shana Dobson(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.0|Blue +2.0

Recent Form

Red +1.9|Blue -1.9

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -112.0|Blue +112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mariya AgapovaTargetShana Dobson

By target zone

45% acc · 82%

Head

60% acc · 75%

67% acc · 18%

Body

100% acc · 21%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

36% acc · 45%

Distance

43% acc · 25%

100% acc · 9%

Clinch

100% acc · 13%

63% acc · 45%

Ground

79% acc · 63%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mariya Agapova rounds

even

Shana Dobson rounds

Round 1Mariya Agapova edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns1

Control2:31

5Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:47Control

Round 2Shana Dobson edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns1

Control0:40

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:43Control

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 46

Sig Strikes

24 / 36

33.5%

Sig Str %

61.5%

56 / 89

Total Strikes

41 / 59

2 / 2

TDs

2 / 2

100%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

3:11

Ctrl Time

2:30

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Shana Dobson	5 / 10	15 / 22	2 / 2
1	Mariya Agapova	21 / 39	53 / 79	1 / 1
2	Shana Dobson	19 / 26	26 / 37	0 / 0
2	Mariya Agapova	1 / 7	3 / 10	1 / 1

Mariya Agapova

StanceSouthpaw

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights6

Shana Dobson

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6