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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Mariya Agapova won · SUB R1

Elo1491

Elo1388

Mariya AgapovavsHannah CifersUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvillo · Saturday, June 13, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Mariya Agapova won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:42

Style matchupMariya Agapova: Pressure fightervsHannah Cifers: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Mariya Agapova wins(59.7%)

Actual result: Mariya Agapova wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mariya Agapova at -335 American odds

+$30 profit

$130 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mariya Agapova enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Hannah Cifers enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Mariya Agapova threatens submissions; Hannah Cifers has lost 60% of fights by sub.
Hannah Cifers has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Mariya Agapova (53.5%).
Mariya Agapova has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Mariya Agapova

Red Corner

Hannah Cifers

Blue Corner

-335

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+305

(25%)

1491

Elo

1388

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'1"

172.72 cm

Reach

157.48 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mariya AgapovaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Shana Dobson · Aug 20

SUBvs Sabina Mazo · Oct 21

SUBvs Maryna Moroz · Mar 22

SUBvs Gillian Robertson · Sep 22

SUBvs Luana Santos · Jul 24

latest

Hannah CifersL3 streak

oldest →

vs Polyana Viana · Mar 19

vs Jodie Esquibel · Aug 19

KOvs Angela Hill · Jan 20

SUBvs Mackenzie Dern · May 20

SUBvs Mallory Martin · Aug 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mariya AgapovaMetricHannah Cifers

4.43

Strikes / min

4.99

3.62

Strikes absorbed / min

5.39

52%

Strike defense

52%

0.55

TDs / 15 min

0.26

45%

Takedown defense

64%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.81Δ 1.21 — meaningful gap-0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mariya AgapovaHannah Cifers

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mariya Agapova(6 fights)Hannah Cifers(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +103.0|Blue -103.0

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +49.2|Blue -49.2

Grappler Score

Red +49.6|Blue -49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mariya AgapovaTargetHannah Cifers

By target zone

49% acc · 69%

Head

19% acc · 36%

80% acc · 28%

Body

60% acc · 27%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

67% acc · 36%

By position

54% acc · 66%

Distance

30% acc · 64%

59% acc · 34%

Clinch

44% acc · 36%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mariya Agapova rounds

even

Hannah Cifers rounds

Round 1Mariya Agapova edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:24

Knockdowns1

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:30Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 52

Sig Strikes

11 / 32

55%

Sig Str %

34%

36 / 59

Total Strikes

14 / 36

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:24

Ctrl Time

0:30

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Hannah Cifers	11 / 32	14 / 36	0 / 0	0
1	Mariya Agapova	29 / 52	36 / 59	0 / 0	1

Mariya Agapova

StanceSouthpaw

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights6

Hannah Cifers

StanceOrthodox

Height61.0"

Reach62.0"

Fights7