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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Gillian Robertson won · SUB R2

Elo1491

Elo1544

Gillian Robertson editorial illustration

Mariya AgapovavsGillian RobertsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song · Saturday, September 17, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Gillian Robertson won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:19

Style matchupMariya Agapova: Pressure fightervsGillian Robertson: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Gillian Robertson wins(51.6%)

Actual result: Gillian Robertson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gillian Robertson at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gillian Robertson enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Gillian Robertson threatens submissions; Mariya Agapova has lost 75% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Mariya Agapova (53.5%).
Mariya Agapova has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Mariya Agapova

Red Corner

Gillian Robertson

Blue Corner

+135

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-155

(61%)

1491

Elo

1544

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'5"

172.72 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mariya AgapovaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Hannah Cifers · Jun 20

KOvs Shana Dobson · Aug 20

SUBvs Sabina Mazo · Oct 21

SUBvs Maryna Moroz · Mar 22

SUBvs Luana Santos · Jul 24

latest

Gillian RobertsonW5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Polyana Viana · Jan 24

vs Michelle Waterson-Gomez · Jun 24

vs Luana Pinheiro · Nov 24

KOvs Marina Rodriguez · May 25

vs Amanda Lemos · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mariya AgapovaMetricGillian Robertson

4.43

Strikes / min

2.71

3.62

Strikes absorbed / min

2.86

52%

Strike defense

56%

0.55

TDs / 15 min

2.76

45%

Takedown defense

38%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.81evenly matched on net striking-0.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mariya AgapovaGillian Robertson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mariya Agapova(6 fights)Gillian Robertson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -53.2|Blue +53.2

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mariya AgapovaTargetGillian Robertson

By target zone

68% acc · 92%

Head

0% acc

60% acc · 8%

Body

50% acc · 25%

Leg

43% acc · 75%

By position

33% acc · 23%

Distance

29% acc · 100%

83% acc · 13%

Clinch

100% acc · 64%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mariya Agapova rounds

even

Gillian Robertson rounds

Round 1Mariya Agapova edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:29

2Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:13Control

Round 2Gillian Robertson edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:34Control

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 58

Sig Strikes

4 / 14

48%

Sig Str %

31%

84 / 107

Total Strikes

7 / 20

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 7

—

TD %

66.5%

Sub Att

Rev

0:29

Ctrl Time

4:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Gillian Robertson	2 / 9	2 / 9	2 / 6	0
1	Mariya Agapova	37 / 47	82 / 96	0 / 0	1
2	Gillian Robertson	2 / 5	5 / 11	1 / 1	1
2	Mariya Agapova	2 / 11	2 / 11	0 / 0	0

Mariya Agapova

StanceSouthpaw

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights6

Gillian Robertson

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights20