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Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Marion Reneau won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1404

Elo1492

Marion ReneauvsTalita BernardoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Struve · Saturday, September 2, 2017Rotterdam, Zuid-Holland, Netherlands

Official fight result

Marion Reneau won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 4:54

Model Prediction: Marion Reneau wins(65.8%)

Actual result: Marion Reneau wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marion Reneau at -320 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marion Reneau enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Marion Reneau has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Marion Reneau

Red Corner

Talita Bernardo

Blue Corner

-320

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+260

(28%)

1404

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'4"

172.72 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marion ReneauL5 streak

oldest →

vs Cat Zingano · Jul 18

vs Yana Kunitskaya · Mar 19

vs Raquel Pennington · Jun 20

vs Macy Chiasson · Mar 21

KOvs Miesha Tate · Jul 21

latest

Talita Bernardo

oldest →

vs Irene Aldana · Jan 18

vs Sarah Moras · Oct 18

KOvs Viviane Araujo · May 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marion ReneauMetricTalita Bernardo

3.20

Strikes / min

3.12

3.52

Strikes absorbed / min

4.04

59%

Strike defense

55%

0.62

TDs / 15 min

1.62

50%

Takedown defense

28%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.32evenly matched on net striking-0.92

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marion ReneauTalita Bernardo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marion Reneau(10 fights)Talita Bernardo(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -87.8|Blue +87.8

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -47.3|Blue +47.3

Grappler Score

Red -49.9|Blue +49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marion ReneauTargetTalita Bernardo

By target zone

41% acc · 82%

Head

15% acc · 50%

90% acc · 16%

Body

80% acc · 18%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

88% acc · 32%

By position

35% acc · 42%

Distance

22% acc · 82%

91% acc · 18%

Clinch

100% acc · 5%

48% acc · 40%

Ground

75% acc · 14%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marion Reneau rounds

even

Talita Bernardo rounds

Round 1Talita Bernardo edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:13

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:37Control

Round 2Marion Reneau edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:59

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:26Control

Round 3Marion Reneau edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control2:16

3Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:23Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

57 / 127

Sig Strikes

22 / 88

39.7%

Sig Str %

33.7%

118 / 192

Total Strikes

38 / 112

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 7

—

TD %

58.3%

Sub Att

Rev

3:28

Ctrl Time

6:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Talita Bernardo	2 / 11	11 / 23	1 / 1	1
1	Marion Reneau	3 / 12	31 / 40	0 / 0	2
2	Talita Bernardo	17 / 72	19 / 75	1 / 4	0
2	Marion Reneau	29 / 65	36 / 72	0 / 0	0
3	Talita Bernardo	3 / 5	8 / 14	1 / 2	0
3	Marion Reneau	25 / 50	51 / 80	0 / 0	3

Marion Reneau

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights12

Talita Bernardo

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights4