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Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Miesha Tate won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1404

Elo1495

Marion ReneauvsMiesha TateUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises · Saturday, July 17, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Miesha Tate won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 1:53

Model Prediction: Miesha Tate wins(72.5%)

Actual result: Miesha Tate wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Miesha Tate at -180 American odds

+$56 profit

$156 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marion Reneau enters on a 4-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Marion Reneau

Red Corner

Miesha Tate

Blue Corner

+155

(39%)

Vegas Odds

-180

(64%)

1404

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'6"

172.72 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marion ReneauL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Sara McMann · Feb 18

vs Cat Zingano · Jul 18

vs Yana Kunitskaya · Mar 19

vs Raquel Pennington · Jun 20

vs Macy Chiasson · Mar 21

latest

Miesha Tate

oldest →

vs Raquel Pennington · Nov 16

vs Ketlen Vieira · Nov 21

vs Lauren Murphy · Jul 22

SUBvs Julia Avila · Dec 23

vs Yana Santos · May 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marion ReneauMetricMiesha Tate

3.20

Strikes / min

2.62

3.52

Strikes absorbed / min

3.05

59%

Strike defense

51%

0.62

TDs / 15 min

1.97

50%

Takedown defense

56%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.32evenly matched on net striking-0.43

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marion ReneauMiesha Tate

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marion Reneau(10 fights)Miesha Tate(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -91.4|Blue +91.4

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -1589.0|Blue +1589.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marion ReneauTargetMiesha Tate

By target zone

30% acc · 64%

Head

47% acc · 68%

88% acc · 28%

Body

80% acc · 25%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

71% acc · 8%

By position

31% acc · 60%

Distance

43% acc · 49%

78% acc · 28%

Clinch

100% acc · 12%

50% acc · 12%

Ground

66% acc · 38%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marion Reneau rounds

even

Miesha Tate rounds

Round 1Miesha Tate edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

25Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:36Control

Round 2Miesha Tate edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:01Control

Round 3Miesha Tate edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:15Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

25 / 64

Sig Strikes

65 / 120

35.3%

Sig Str %

53.7%

48 / 88

Total Strikes

110 / 183

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 6

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

5:52

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Miesha Tate	25 / 43	34 / 52	1 / 2
1	Marion Reneau	15 / 37	30 / 52	0 / 0
2	Miesha Tate	22 / 40	45 / 64	1 / 2
2	Marion Reneau	8 / 18	16 / 27	0 / 0
3	Miesha Tate	18 / 37	31 / 67	1 / 2
3	Marion Reneau	2 / 9	2 / 9	0 / 0

Marion Reneau

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights12

Miesha Tate

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights14