Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Macy Chiasson won · U-DEC

Elo1404

Elo1474

Marion ReneauvsMacy ChiassonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Holland · Saturday, March 20, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Macy Chiasson won

U-DEC

Model Prediction: Macy Chiasson wins(73.9%)

Actual result: Macy Chiasson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Macy Chiasson at -225 American odds

+$44 profit

$144 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marion Reneau enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Macy Chiasson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Marion Reneau has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Macy Chiasson has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Marion Reneau

Red Corner

Macy Chiasson

Blue Corner

+185

(35%)

Vegas Odds

-225

(69%)

1404

Elo

1474

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'11"

172.72 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marion ReneauL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Sara McMann · Feb 18

vs Cat Zingano · Jul 18

vs Yana Kunitskaya · Mar 19

vs Raquel Pennington · Jun 20

KOvs Miesha Tate · Jul 21

latest

Macy ChiassonL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Pannie Kianzad · Mar 24

KOvs Mayra Bueno Silva · Jun 24

vs Ketlen Vieira · May 25

vs Yana Santos · Oct 25

vs Ailin Perez · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marion ReneauMetricMacy Chiasson

3.20

Strikes / min

3.21

3.52

Strikes absorbed / min

2.76

59%

Strike defense

44%

0.62

TDs / 15 min

1.87

50%

Takedown defense

62%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.32evenly matched on net striking+0.45

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marion ReneauMacy Chiasson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marion Reneau(10 fights)Macy Chiasson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -70.3|Blue +70.3

Recent Form

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Striker Score

Red +1.7|Blue -1.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -126.0|Blue +126.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marion ReneauTargetMacy Chiasson

By target zone

35% acc · 47%

Head

26% acc · 57%

54% acc · 23%

Body

75% acc · 29%

90% acc · 30%

Leg

88% acc · 14%

By position

46% acc · 83%

Distance

30% acc · 71%

56% acc · 17%

Clinch

87% acc · 25%

Ground

50% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marion Reneau rounds

even

Macy Chiasson rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:27

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Round 2Macy Chiasson edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control0:26

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:40Control

Round 3Macy Chiasson edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control1:22

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:07Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 63

Sig Strikes

51 / 138

48%

Sig Str %

37.7%

59 / 93

Total Strikes

92 / 184

2 / 4

TDs

1 / 1

50%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

2:15

Ctrl Time

3:48

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Macy Chiasson	15 / 56	16 / 57	0 / 0
1	Marion Reneau	13 / 28	14 / 30	0 / 1
2	Macy Chiasson	21 / 41	48 / 69	0 / 0
2	Marion Reneau	9 / 16	22 / 29	1 / 1
3	Macy Chiasson	15 / 41	28 / 58	1 / 1
3	Marion Reneau	8 / 19	23 / 34	1 / 2

Marion Reneau

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights12

Macy Chiasson

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights14