Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Marion Reneau enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Ashlee Evans-Smith enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Marion Reneau threatens submissions; Ashlee Evans-Smith has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Marion ReneauL5 streak
oldest →L
vs Yana Kunitskaya · Mar 19L
vs Raquel Pennington · Jun 20L
vs Macy Chiasson · Mar 21L
KOvs Miesha Tate · Jul 21 Ashlee Evans-SmithL3 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Sarah Moras · Sep 17W
vs Bec Rawlings · Apr 18L
vs Norma Dumont · Nov 20 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Marion ReneauMetricAshlee Evans-Smith
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.32evenly matched on net striking-0.56
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Marion ReneauAshlee Evans-Smith
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Marion Reneau(10 fights)Ashlee Evans-Smith(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -64.4|Blue +64.4
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +2.8|Blue -2.8
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -221.0|Blue +221.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Marion ReneauTargetAshlee Evans-Smith
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
1
Ashlee Evans-Smith rounds
Round 1Marion Reneau edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns1
Control0:12
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
Round 2Marion Reneau edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns0
Control0:00
16Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Ashlee Evans-Smith edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:00
20Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:48Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
