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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Mario Pinto won · U-DEC R3

Elo1548

Elo1512

Mario PintovsFelipe FrancoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · Saturday, March 21, 2026London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Mario Pinto won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMario Pinto: WrestlervsFelipe Franco: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Mario Pinto wins(75.5%)

Actual result: Mario Pinto wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mario Pinto at -900 American odds

+$11 profit

$111 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mario Pinto has 20pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Mario Pinto

Red Corner

Felipe Franco

Blue Corner

-900

(90%)

Vegas Odds

+570

(15%)

1548

Elo

1512

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'5"

Height

6'1"

200.66 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mario PintoW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Austen Lane · Mar 25

KOvs Jhonata Diniz · Oct 25

latest

Felipe Franco

oldest →

KOvs Levi Rodrigues Jr. · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mario PintoMetricFelipe Franco

2.85

Strikes / min

1.81

1.93

Strikes absorbed / min

2.55

58%

Strike defense

38%

2.38

TDs / 15 min

3.02

100%

Takedown defense

87%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.92Δ 1.66 — meaningful gap-0.74

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mario PintoFelipe Franco

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mario Pinto(3 fights)Felipe Franco(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +36.7|Blue -36.7

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mario PintoTargetFelipe Franco

By target zone

52% acc · 74%

Head

25% acc · 62%

86% acc · 18%

Body

88% acc · 33%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

48% acc · 59%

Distance

25% acc · 62%

87% acc · 38%

Clinch

89% acc · 38%

100% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mario Pinto rounds

even

Felipe Franco rounds

Round 1Mario Pinto edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:28

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Mario Pinto edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control2:20

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Mario Pinto edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control3:27

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

34 / 58

Sig Strikes

21 / 60

64%

Sig Str %

35.7%

137 / 166

Total Strikes

60 / 100

2 / 14

TDs

0 / 1

11.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

6:15

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Felipe Franco	9 / 25	16 / 32	0 / 0
1	Mario Pinto	16 / 28	37 / 49	0 / 2
2	Felipe Franco	3 / 19	11 / 27	0 / 1
2	Mario Pinto	9 / 20	39 / 53	1 / 5
3	Felipe Franco	9 / 16	33 / 41	0 / 0
3	Mario Pinto	9 / 10	61 / 64	1 / 7

Mario Pinto

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights3

Felipe Franco

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights2