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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Aaron Simpson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1351

Elo1490

Mario MirandavsAaron SimpsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Davis · Saturday, March 26, 2011Seattle, Washington, USA

Official fight result

Aaron Simpson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Aaron Simpson wins(50.6%)

Actual result: Aaron Simpson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Aaron Simpson at -210 American odds

+$48 profit

$148 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mario Miranda is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Aaron Simpson has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Aaron Simpson has 20pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Aaron Simpson has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mario Miranda

Red Corner

Aaron Simpson

Blue Corner

+175

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-210

(68%)

1351

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'0"

187.96 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mario Miranda

oldest →

KOvs Gerald Harris · Mar 10

KOvs David Loiseau · Jun 10

vs Demian Maia · Aug 10

latest

Aaron Simpson

oldest →

vs Brad Tavares · Jul 11

vs Eric Schafer · Oct 11

vs Ronny Markes · Feb 12

vs Kenny Robertson · Jul 12

KOvs Mike Pierce · Oct 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mario MirandaMetricAaron Simpson

1.96

Strikes / min

3.60

2.46

Strikes absorbed / min

2.53

36%

Strike defense

56%

1.02

TDs / 15 min

3.78

54%

Takedown defense

83%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.50Δ 1.57 — meaningful gap+1.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mario MirandaAaron Simpson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mario Miranda(4 fights)Aaron Simpson(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -139.2|Blue +139.2

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +84.0|Blue -84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mario MirandaTargetAaron Simpson

By target zone

86% acc · 43%

Head

43% acc · 20%

100% acc · 29%

Body

100% acc · 7%

100% acc · 29%

Leg

100% acc · 73%

By position

75% acc · 21%

Distance

25% acc · 5%

100% acc · 79%

Clinch

100% acc · 61%

Ground

74% acc · 34%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mario Miranda rounds

even

Aaron Simpson rounds

Round 1Aaron Simpson edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:50

22Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

3:47Control

Round 2Aaron Simpson edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

4Takedowns

4:24Control

Round 3Aaron Simpson edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:20

15Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

4:28Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 15

Sig Strikes

59 / 75

95%

Sig Str %

78%

60 / 63

Total Strikes

122 / 158

0 / 2

TDs

10 / 26

TD %

38%

Sub Att

Rev

1:10

Ctrl Time

12:39

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Aaron Simpson	22 / 29	46 / 62	3 / 8
1	Mario Miranda	4 / 4	32 / 34	0 / 0
2	Aaron Simpson	22 / 26	45 / 55	4 / 9
2	Mario Miranda	4 / 4	13 / 13	0 / 1
3	Aaron Simpson	15 / 20	31 / 41	3 / 9
3	Mario Miranda	6 / 7	15 / 16	0 / 1

Mario Miranda

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights4

Aaron Simpson

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8