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Bantamweight

5 Rounds

Mario Bautista won · SUB R2

Elo1554

Elo1538

Mario BautistavsVinicius OliveiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · Saturday, February 7, 2026Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Mario Bautista won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:46

Style matchupMario Bautista: Pressure fightervsVinicius Oliveira: Elusive striker

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: Mario Bautista wins(57.1%)

Actual result: Mario Bautista wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mario Bautista at -126 American odds

+$79 profit

$179 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Vinicius Oliveira enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Vinicius Oliveira has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mario Bautista

Red Corner

Vinicius Oliveira

Blue Corner

-126

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+108

(48%)

1554

Elo

1538

Age

Switch

Stance

Switch

5'9"

Height

5'9"

175.26 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mario Bautista

oldest →

vs Ricky Simon · Jan 24

vs Jose Aldo · Oct 24

vs Patchy Mix · Jun 25

vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Oct 25

DECvs Cory Sandhagen · Jul 26

latest

Vinicius OliveiraW5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Benardo Sopaj · Mar 24

vs Ricky Simon · Jun 24

vs Said Nurmagomedov · Feb 25

vs Kyler Phillips · Jul 25

KOvs Andre Fili · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mario BautistaMetricVinicius Oliveira

5.30

Strikes / min

4.73

3.98

Strikes absorbed / min

2.70

54%

Strike defense

57%

1.91

TDs / 15 min

1.45

55%

Takedown defense

70%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.32evenly matched on net striking+2.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mario BautistaVinicius Oliveira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mario Bautista(10 fights)Vinicius Oliveira(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +15.7|Blue -15.7

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -98.0|Blue +98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mario BautistaTargetVinicius Oliveira

By target zone

50% acc · 67%

Head

30% acc · 25%

83% acc · 33%

Body

60% acc · 25%

0% acc

Leg

100% acc · 50%

By position

50% acc · 40%

Distance

50% acc · 75%

0% acc

Clinch

100% acc · 25%

69% acc · 60%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mario Bautista rounds

even

Vinicius Oliveira rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control2:18

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:39Control

Round 2Mario Bautista edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns4

Control3:29

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

15 / 27

Sig Strikes

12 / 21

49.5%

Sig Str %

60.5%

49 / 63

Total Strikes

18 / 27

5 / 7

TDs

0 / 1

65%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

5:47

Ctrl Time

1:39

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Vinicius Oliveira	6 / 8	8 / 10	0 / 0	0
1	Mario Bautista	3 / 9	22 / 29	1 / 2	0
2	Vinicius Oliveira	6 / 13	10 / 17	0 / 1	0
2	Mario Bautista	12 / 18	27 / 34	4 / 5	1

Mario Bautista

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights15

Vinicius Oliveira

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights7