← All fights/Event page

Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Trevin Jones won · KO/TKO

Elo1554

Elo1450

Mario BautistavsTrevin JonesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · Saturday, March 6, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Trevin Jones won

KO/TKO

Model Prediction: Mario Bautista wins(58.6%)

Actual result: Trevin Jones wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mario Bautista at -240 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Trevin Jones enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Mario Bautista has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Mario Bautista (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Mario Bautista

Red Corner

Trevin Jones

Blue Corner

-240

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+200

(33%)

1554

Elo

1450

Age

Switch

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'7"

175.26 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mario BautistaW2 streak

oldest →

vs Jose Aldo · Oct 24

vs Patchy Mix · Jun 25

vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Oct 25

SUBvs Vinicius Oliveira · Feb 26

DECvs Cory Sandhagen · Jul 26

latest

Trevin JonesL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Timur Valiev · Aug 20

SUBvs Saidyokub Kakhramonov · Aug 21

vs Javid Basharat · Mar 22

vs Raoni Barcelos · Oct 22

vs Cody Garbrandt · Mar 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mario BautistaMetricTrevin Jones

5.30

Strikes / min

2.13

3.98

Strikes absorbed / min

4.29

54%

Strike defense

39%

1.91

TDs / 15 min

0.62

55%

Takedown defense

60%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.32Δ 3.48 — meaningful gap-2.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mario BautistaTrevin Jones

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mario Bautista(10 fights)Trevin Jones(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +103.7|Blue -103.7

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +196.0|Blue -196.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mario BautistaTargetTrevin Jones

By target zone

41% acc · 52%

Head

61% acc · 48%

55% acc · 29%

Body

100% acc · 4%

100% acc · 19%

Leg

100% acc · 48%

By position

46% acc · 76%

Distance

77% acc · 74%

71% acc · 24%

Clinch

100% acc · 9%

Ground

67% acc · 17%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mario Bautista rounds

even

Trevin Jones rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:09

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:21Control

Round 2Trevin Jones edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 42

Sig Strikes

23 / 30

44.5%

Sig Str %

76.5%

43 / 64

Total Strikes

36 / 44

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 3

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:09

Ctrl Time

1:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Trevin Jones	16 / 21	28 / 34	0 / 3
1	Mario Bautista	18 / 34	40 / 56	0 / 0
2	Trevin Jones	7 / 9	8 / 10	0 / 0
2	Mario Bautista	3 / 8	3 / 8	0 / 0

Mario Bautista

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights15

Trevin Jones

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights6