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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Mario Bautista won · U-DEC R3

Elo1554

Elo1474

Mario BautistavsPatchy MixUFC Prediction Result

UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Saturday, June 7, 2025Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Mario Bautista won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMario Bautista: Pressure fightervsPatchy Mix: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Mario Bautista wins(81.1%)

Actual result: Mario Bautista wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mario Bautista at +146 American odds

+$146 profit

$246 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mario Bautista has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Mario Bautista has 55pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Mario Bautista (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Mario Bautista

Red Corner

Patchy Mix

Blue Corner

+146

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-174

(64%)

1554

Elo

1474

Age

Switch

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'11"

175.26 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mario BautistaW2 streak

oldest →

vs Ricky Simon · Jan 24

vs Jose Aldo · Oct 24

vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Oct 25

SUBvs Vinicius Oliveira · Feb 26

DECvs Cory Sandhagen · Jul 26

latest

Patchy Mix

oldest →

vs Jakub Wiklacz · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mario BautistaMetricPatchy Mix

5.30

Strikes / min

5.30

3.98

Strikes absorbed / min

7.30

54%

Strike defense

43%

1.91

TDs / 15 min

2.50

55%

Takedown defense

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.32Δ 3.32 — meaningful gap-2.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mario BautistaPatchy Mix

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mario Bautista(10 fights)Patchy Mix(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +80.3|Blue -80.3

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mario BautistaTargetPatchy Mix

By target zone

44% acc · 55%

Head

35% acc · 75%

88% acc · 34%

Body

64% acc · 11%

95% acc · 11%

Leg

94% acc · 13%

By position

172

57% acc · 99%

Distance

118

39% acc · 97%

100% acc · 1%

Clinch

80% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mario Bautista rounds

even

Patchy Mix rounds

Round 1Mario Bautista edged it

Sig. strikes43

Takedowns0

Control0:00

36Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Mario Bautista edged it

Sig. strikes65

Takedowns0

Control0:00

59Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Mario Bautista edged it

Sig. strikes65

Takedowns0

Control0:00

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

173 / 302

Sig Strikes

122 / 304

56.7%

Sig Str %

41%

173 / 302

Total Strikes

122 / 304

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Patchy Mix	36 / 74	36 / 74	0 / 0
1	Mario Bautista	43 / 91	43 / 91	0 / 0
2	Patchy Mix	59 / 111	59 / 111	0 / 0
2	Mario Bautista	65 / 103	65 / 103	0 / 0
3	Patchy Mix	27 / 119	27 / 119	0 / 1
3	Mario Bautista	65 / 108	65 / 108	0 / 0

Mario Bautista

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights15

Patchy Mix

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights2