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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Mario Bautista won · U-DEC R3

Elo1554

Elo1375

Mario BautistavsJin Soo SonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Edwards · Saturday, July 20, 2019San Antonio, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Mario Bautista won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMario Bautista: Pressure fightervsJin Soo Son: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Mario Bautista wins(62.3%)

Actual result: Mario Bautista wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mario Bautista at +150 American odds

+$150 profit

$250 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jin Soo Son has 45pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Mario Bautista (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Mario Bautista

Red Corner

Jin Soo Son

Blue Corner

+150

(40%)

Vegas Odds

-170

(63%)

1554

Elo

1375

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'6"

175.26 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mario BautistaW2 streak

oldest →

vs Jose Aldo · Oct 24

vs Patchy Mix · Jun 25

vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Oct 25

SUBvs Vinicius Oliveira · Feb 26

DECvs Cory Sandhagen · Jul 26

latest

Jin Soo Son

oldest →

vs Petr Yan · Sep 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mario BautistaMetricJin Soo Son

5.30

Strikes / min

5.10

3.98

Strikes absorbed / min

7.63

54%

Strike defense

52%

1.91

TDs / 15 min

1.50

55%

Takedown defense

100%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.32Δ 3.85 — meaningful gap-2.53

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mario BautistaJin Soo Son

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mario Bautista(10 fights)Jin Soo Son(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +179.6|Blue -179.6

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -126.0|Blue +126.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mario BautistaTargetJin Soo Son

By target zone

46% acc · 71%

Head

43% acc · 78%

69% acc · 21%

Body

74% acc · 15%

91% acc · 8%

Leg

78% acc · 7%

By position

104

47% acc · 81%

Distance

43% acc · 82%

89% acc · 19%

Clinch

94% acc · 18%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mario Bautista rounds

even

Jin Soo Son rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:20

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

Round 2Mario Bautista edged it

Sig. strikes42

Takedowns0

Control0:35

24Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:16Control

Round 3Mario Bautista edged it

Sig. strikes60

Takedowns0

Control0:00

42Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:08Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

129 / 248

Sig Strikes

95 / 200

52.3%

Sig Str %

48.3%

179 / 301

Total Strikes

106 / 213

0 / 2

TDs

2 / 5

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:55

Ctrl Time

1:38

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jin Soo Son	29 / 54	29 / 55	0 / 1
1	Mario Bautista	27 / 77	38 / 88	0 / 0
2	Jin Soo Son	24 / 48	30 / 55	1 / 2
2	Mario Bautista	42 / 61	64 / 84	0 / 2
3	Jin Soo Son	42 / 98	47 / 103	1 / 2
3	Mario Bautista	60 / 110	77 / 129	0 / 0

Mario Bautista

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights15

Jin Soo Son

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights2