← All fights/Event page

Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Mario Bautista won · U-DEC R3

Elo1554

Elo1441

Mario BautistavsJay PerrinUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill · Saturday, February 19, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Mario Bautista won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMario Bautista: Pressure fightervsJay Perrin: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Mario Bautista wins(68.4%)

Actual result: Mario Bautista wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mario Bautista at -350 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mario Bautista has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Mario Bautista

Red Corner

Jay Perrin

Blue Corner

-350

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+270

(27%)

1554

Elo

1441

Age

Switch

Stance

Switch

5'9"

Height

5'7"

175.26 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mario BautistaW2 streak

oldest →

vs Jose Aldo · Oct 24

vs Patchy Mix · Jun 25

vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Oct 25

SUBvs Vinicius Oliveira · Feb 26

DECvs Cory Sandhagen · Jul 26

latest

Jay PerrinL2 streak

oldest →

vs Aoriqileng · Aug 22

SUBvs Raul Rosas Jr. · Dec 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mario BautistaMetricJay Perrin

5.30

Strikes / min

3.71

3.98

Strikes absorbed / min

3.90

54%

Strike defense

44%

1.91

TDs / 15 min

2.83

55%

Takedown defense

58%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.32Δ 1.51 — meaningful gap-0.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mario BautistaJay Perrin

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mario Bautista(10 fights)Jay Perrin(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +112.9|Blue -112.9

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.9|Blue +49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mario BautistaTargetJay Perrin

By target zone

50% acc · 60%

Head

24% acc · 38%

71% acc · 24%

Body

63% acc · 45%

80% acc · 17%

Leg

70% acc · 17%

By position

47% acc · 54%

Distance

35% acc · 79%

81% acc · 40%

Clinch

75% acc · 21%

67% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mario Bautista rounds

even

Jay Perrin rounds

Round 1Mario Bautista edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control1:55

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:47Control

Round 2Mario Bautista edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns1

Control1:24

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:48Control

Round 3Mario Bautista edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns2

Control3:11

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

72 / 125

Sig Strikes

42 / 107

57%

Sig Str %

35.7%

112 / 173

Total Strikes

57 / 122

4 / 6

TDs

2 / 5

72%

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

6:30

Ctrl Time

1:45

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jay Perrin	19 / 42	29 / 52	1 / 2
1	Mario Bautista	19 / 38	31 / 50	1 / 1
2	Jay Perrin	19 / 45	23 / 49	1 / 2
2	Mario Bautista	27 / 41	39 / 54	1 / 2
3	Jay Perrin	4 / 20	5 / 21	0 / 1
3	Mario Bautista	26 / 46	42 / 69	2 / 3

Mario Bautista

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights15

Jay Perrin

StanceSwitch

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights3