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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Mario Bautista won · SUB R1

Elo1554

Elo1497

Mario BautistavsGuido CannettiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · Saturday, March 11, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Mario Bautista won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:18

Style matchupMario Bautista: Pressure fightervsGuido Cannetti: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Mario Bautista wins(82.2%)

Actual result: Mario Bautista wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mario Bautista at -1200 American odds

+$8 profit

$108 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Mario Bautista (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Mario Bautista

Red Corner

Guido Cannetti

Blue Corner

-1200

(92%)

Vegas Odds

+750

(12%)

1554

Elo

1497

Age

Switch

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'6"

175.26 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mario BautistaW2 streak

oldest →

vs Jose Aldo · Oct 24

vs Patchy Mix · Jun 25

vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Oct 25

SUBvs Vinicius Oliveira · Feb 26

DECvs Cory Sandhagen · Jul 26

latest

Guido CannettiW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Marlon Vera · Nov 18

KOvs Danaa Batgerel · Mar 20

vs Mana Martinez · Aug 21

KOvs Kris Moutinho · Mar 22

SUBvs Randy Costa · Oct 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mario BautistaMetricGuido Cannetti

5.30

Strikes / min

3.44

3.98

Strikes absorbed / min

2.84

54%

Strike defense

51%

1.91

TDs / 15 min

2.27

55%

Takedown defense

64%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.32evenly matched on net striking+0.60

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mario BautistaGuido Cannetti

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mario Bautista(10 fights)Guido Cannetti(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +57.4|Blue -57.4

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -35.0|Blue +35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mario BautistaTargetGuido Cannetti

By target zone

67% acc · 67%

Head

0% acc

100% acc · 33%

Body

0% acc

Leg

67% acc · 100%

By position

0% acc

Distance

40% acc · 100%

100% acc · 33%

Clinch

100% acc · 67%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mario Bautista rounds

even

Guido Cannetti rounds

Round 1Mario Bautista edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns3

Control2:36

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:16Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

3 / 4

Sig Strikes

2 / 5

75%

Sig Str %

40%

5 / 6

Total Strikes

5 / 8

3 / 4

TDs

1 / 1

75%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

2:36

Ctrl Time

0:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Guido Cannetti	2 / 5	5 / 8	1 / 1	0
1	Mario Bautista	3 / 4	5 / 6	3 / 4	1

Mario Bautista

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights15

Guido Cannetti

StanceSouthpaw

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights10