← All fights/Event page

Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Mario Bautista won · SUB R1

Elo1554

Elo1495

Mario BautistavsBenito LopezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos · Saturday, November 5, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Mario Bautista won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:54

Style matchupMario Bautista: Pressure fightervsBenito Lopez: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Mario Bautista wins(79.2%)

Actual result: Mario Bautista wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mario Bautista at -365 American odds

+$27 profit

$127 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Benito Lopez has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Benito Lopez has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Mario Bautista

Red Corner

Benito Lopez

Blue Corner

-365

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+300

(25%)

1554

Elo

1495

Age

Switch

Stance

Switch

5'9"

Height

5'10"

175.26 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mario BautistaW2 streak

oldest →

vs Jose Aldo · Oct 24

vs Patchy Mix · Jun 25

vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Oct 25

SUBvs Vinicius Oliveira · Feb 26

DECvs Cory Sandhagen · Jul 26

latest

Benito Lopez

oldest →

vs Albert Morales · Dec 17

SUBvs Manny Bermudez · Feb 19

vs Vince Morales · Jul 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mario BautistaMetricBenito Lopez

5.30

Strikes / min

4.39

3.98

Strikes absorbed / min

5.18

54%

Strike defense

56%

1.91

TDs / 15 min

0.00

55%

Takedown defense

73%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.32Δ 2.11 — meaningful gap-0.79

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mario BautistaBenito Lopez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mario Bautista(10 fights)Benito Lopez(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +59.3|Blue -59.3

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -1078.0|Blue +1078.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mario BautistaTargetBenito Lopez

By target zone

49% acc · 45%

Head

43% acc · 35%

92% acc · 27%

Body

100% acc · 12%

92% acc · 27%

Leg

100% acc · 53%

By position

62% acc · 73%

Distance

62% acc · 76%

Clinch

80% acc · 27%

Ground

100% acc · 24%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mario Bautista rounds

even

Benito Lopez rounds

Round 1Mario Bautista edged it

Sig. strikes44

Takedowns1

Control2:36

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

44 / 67

Sig Strikes

17 / 25

65%

Sig Str %

68%

49 / 72

Total Strikes

17 / 25

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:36

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Benito Lopez	17 / 25	17 / 25	0 / 0	0
1	Mario Bautista	44 / 67	49 / 72	1 / 1	3

Mario Bautista

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights15

Benito Lopez

StanceSwitch

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights4