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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Marina Rodriguez won · S-DEC R3

Elo1483

Elo1500

Marina RodriguezvsYan XiaonanUFC Prediction Result

UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · Saturday, March 5, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Marina Rodriguez won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMarina Rodriguez: Well-roundedvsYan Xiaonan: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Marina Rodriguez wins(62.2%)

Actual result: Marina Rodriguez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marina Rodriguez at -305 American odds

+$33 profit

$133 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marina Rodriguez enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Marina Rodriguez

Red Corner

Yan Xiaonan

Blue Corner

-305

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+240

(29%)

1483

Elo

1500

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'5"

165.1 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marina RodriguezL3 streak

oldest →

vs Virna Jandiroba · May 23

KOvs Michelle Waterson-Gomez · Sep 23

vs Jessica Andrade · Apr 24

vs Iasmin Lucindo · Oct 24

KOvs Gillian Robertson · May 25

latest

Yan Xiaonan

oldest →

vs Mackenzie Dern · Oct 22

KOvs Jessica Andrade · May 23

vs Zhang Weili · Apr 24

vs Tabatha Ricci · Nov 24

vs Virna Jandiroba · Apr 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marina RodriguezMetricYan Xiaonan

4.51

Strikes / min

4.69

3.01

Strikes absorbed / min

3.23

55%

Strike defense

60%

0.27

TDs / 15 min

0.84

61%

Takedown defense

64%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.50evenly matched on net striking+1.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marina RodriguezYan Xiaonan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marina Rodriguez(10 fights)Yan Xiaonan(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -16.4|Blue +16.4

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red -1.8|Blue +1.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -140.0|Blue +140.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marina RodriguezTargetYan Xiaonan

By target zone

28% acc · 64%

Head

35% acc · 66%

95% acc · 25%

Body

78% acc · 13%

53% acc · 11%

Leg

67% acc · 21%

By position

32% acc · 82%

Distance

40% acc · 86%

72% acc · 18%

Clinch

73% acc · 14%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marina Rodriguez rounds

even

Yan Xiaonan rounds

Round 1Yan Xiaonan edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 2Yan Xiaonan edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:28

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:29Control

Round 3Marina Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns0

Control0:13

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

72 / 200

Sig Strikes

56 / 132

35%

Sig Str %

41.7%

79 / 207

Total Strikes

66 / 143

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 4

—

TD %

66.5%

Sub Att

Rev

0:41

Ctrl Time

1:33

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Yan Xiaonan	24 / 54	25 / 55	1 / 1
1	Marina Rodriguez	18 / 48	18 / 48	0 / 0
2	Yan Xiaonan	14 / 34	22 / 43	1 / 3
2	Marina Rodriguez	14 / 45	20 / 51	0 / 0
3	Yan Xiaonan	18 / 44	19 / 45	0 / 0
3	Marina Rodriguez	40 / 107	41 / 108	0 / 0

Marina Rodriguez

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights13

Yan Xiaonan

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights13