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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Marina Rodriguez won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1483

Elo1481

Marina RodriguezvsMichelle Waterson-GomezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · Saturday, September 23, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Marina Rodriguez won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:42

Style matchupMarina Rodriguez: Well-roundedvsMichelle Waterson-Gomez: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Marina Rodriguez wins(65.5%)

Actual result: Marina Rodriguez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marina Rodriguez at -360 American odds

+$28 profit

$128 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marina Rodriguez enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Michelle Waterson-Gomez enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Marina Rodriguez

Red Corner

Michelle Waterson-Gomez

Blue Corner

-360

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+260

(28%)

1483

Elo

1481

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'3"

165.1 cm

Reach

157.48 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marina RodriguezL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Amanda Lemos · Nov 22

vs Virna Jandiroba · May 23

vs Jessica Andrade · Apr 24

vs Iasmin Lucindo · Oct 24

KOvs Gillian Robertson · May 25

latest

Michelle Waterson-GomezL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Amanda Lemos · Jul 22

vs Luana Pinheiro · Apr 23

vs Gillian Robertson · Jun 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marina RodriguezMetricMichelle Waterson-Gomez

4.51

Strikes / min

3.42

3.01

Strikes absorbed / min

4.25

55%

Strike defense

48%

0.27

TDs / 15 min

1.39

61%

Takedown defense

69%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.50Δ 2.33 — meaningful gap-0.83

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marina RodriguezMichelle Waterson-Gomez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marina Rodriguez(10 fights)Michelle Waterson-Gomez(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +2.0|Blue -2.0

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -28.0|Blue +28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marina RodriguezTargetMichelle Waterson-Gomez

By target zone

67% acc · 67%

Head

30% acc · 54%

73% acc · 31%

Body

71% acc · 38%

50% acc · 1%

Leg

50% acc · 8%

By position

52% acc · 17%

Distance

24% acc · 31%

73% acc · 76%

Clinch

78% acc · 54%

83% acc · 7%

Ground

33% acc · 15%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marina Rodriguez rounds

even

Michelle Waterson-Gomez rounds

Round 1Marina Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes51

Takedowns1

Control1:07

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:09Control

Round 2Marina Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:56

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:40Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

70 / 102

Sig Strikes

13 / 32

69%

Sig Str %

37.5%

90 / 130

Total Strikes

16 / 37

1 / 1

TDs

1 / 6

100%

TD %

10%

Sub Att

Rev

2:03

Ctrl Time

2:49

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Michelle Waterson-Gomez	10 / 20	13 / 25	1 / 5
1	Marina Rodriguez	51 / 75	67 / 99	1 / 1
2	Michelle Waterson-Gomez	3 / 12	3 / 12	0 / 1
2	Marina Rodriguez	19 / 27	23 / 31	0 / 0

Marina Rodriguez

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights13

Michelle Waterson-Gomez

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach62.0"

Fights4