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Women's Flyweight
5 Rounds
Marina Rodriguez won · U-DEC
Elo1483
Marina Rodriguez
Elo1493

Marina RodriguezvsMichelle WatersonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · Saturday, May 8, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Marina Rodriguez won

U-DEC

Model Prediction: Marina Rodriguez wins(53.0%)

Actual result: Marina Rodriguez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marina Rodriguez at -235 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Marina Rodriguez enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Marina Rodriguez
Red Corner
VS
Michelle Waterson
Blue Corner
-235
(70%)
Vegas Odds
+195
(34%)
1483
Elo
1493
39
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'3"
165.1 cm
Reach
157.48 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marina RodriguezL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Virna Jandiroba · May 23
W
KOvs Michelle Waterson-Gomez · Sep 23
L
vs Jessica Andrade · Apr 24
L
vs Iasmin Lucindo · Oct 24
L
KOvs Gillian Robertson · May 25
latest
Michelle Waterson
oldest →
W
vs Felice Herrig · Oct 18
W
vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · Mar 19
L
vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk · Oct 19
L
vs Carla Esparza · May 20
W
vs Angela Hill · Sep 20
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marina RodriguezMetricMichelle Waterson
4.51
Strikes / min
—
3.01
Strikes absorbed / min
—
55%
Strike defense
—
0.27
TDs / 15 min
—
61%
Takedown defense
—
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
—

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1534 vs 1534Strikes4.9 vs 3.6Takedowns0.3 vs 1.4Sub Atts0.10 vs 0.80Form0.4 vs 0.1
Marina RodriguezMichelle Waterson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701483149515081520← oldermost recent →
Marina Rodriguez(10 fights)Michelle Waterson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -10.2|Blue +10.2
Recent Form
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Grappler Score
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Layoff
Red -133.0|Blue +133.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Marina Rodriguez

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights13

Michelle Waterson

StanceOrthodox
Height63.0"
Reach62.0"
Fights3