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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Marina Rodriguez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1483

Elo1372

Marina RodriguezvsJessica AguilarUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Gaethje · Saturday, March 30, 2019Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA

Official fight result

Marina Rodriguez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMarina Rodriguez: Well-roundedvsJessica Aguilar: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Jessica Aguilar wins(60.4%)

Actual result: Marina Rodriguez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jessica Aguilar at +290 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marina Rodriguez enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Marina Rodriguez

Red Corner

Jessica Aguilar

Blue Corner

-350

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+290

(26%)

1483

Elo

1372

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'3"

165.1 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marina RodriguezL3 streak

oldest →

vs Virna Jandiroba · May 23

KOvs Michelle Waterson-Gomez · Sep 23

vs Jessica Andrade · Apr 24

vs Iasmin Lucindo · Oct 24

KOvs Gillian Robertson · May 25

latest

Jessica Aguilar

oldest →

vs Claudia Gadelha · Aug 15

vs Cortney Casey · May 17

vs Jodie Esquibel · Jul 18

SUBvs Weili Zhang · Nov 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marina RodriguezMetricJessica Aguilar

4.51

Strikes / min

4.93

3.01

Strikes absorbed / min

7.19

55%

Strike defense

53%

0.27

TDs / 15 min

0.94

61%

Takedown defense

50%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.50Δ 3.76 — meaningful gap-2.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marina RodriguezJessica Aguilar

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marina Rodriguez(10 fights)Jessica Aguilar(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +111.5|Blue -111.5

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +46.5|Blue -46.5

Grappler Score

Red +49.8|Blue -49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marina RodriguezTargetJessica Aguilar

By target zone

47% acc · 49%

Head

30% acc · 46%

72% acc · 32%

Body

71% acc · 54%

85% acc · 19%

Leg

By position

47% acc · 57%

Distance

29% acc · 44%

83% acc · 33%

Clinch

71% acc · 54%

100% acc · 10%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marina Rodriguez rounds

even

Jessica Aguilar rounds

Round 1Marina Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control2:30

Knockdowns1

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:28Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Marina Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes50

Takedowns0

Control0:28

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

Round 3Marina Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes48

Takedowns0

Control0:04

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

118 / 202

Sig Strikes

50 / 114

61%

Sig Str %

45.7%

129 / 213

Total Strikes

63 / 127

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:02

Ctrl Time

1:41

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jessica Aguilar	14 / 24	26 / 36	0 / 0	1
1	Marina Rodriguez	20 / 28	30 / 38	0 / 0	0
2	Jessica Aguilar	13 / 34	14 / 35	0 / 0	0
2	Marina Rodriguez	50 / 93	51 / 94	0 / 1	0
3	Jessica Aguilar	23 / 56	23 / 56	0 / 1	0
3	Marina Rodriguez	48 / 81	48 / 81	0 / 0	0

Marina Rodriguez

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights13

Jessica Aguilar

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights5