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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Gillian Robertson won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1483

Elo1544

Gillian Robertson editorial illustration

Marina RodriguezvsGillian RobertsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · Saturday, May 3, 2025Des Moines, Iowa, USA

Official fight result

Gillian Robertson won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:07

Style matchupMarina Rodriguez: Well-roundedvsGillian Robertson: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Gillian Robertson wins(76.7%)

Actual result: Gillian Robertson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gillian Robertson at -270 American odds

+$37 profit

$137 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gillian Robertson enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Marina Rodriguez has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Marina Rodriguez

Red Corner

Gillian Robertson

Blue Corner

+220

(31%)

Vegas Odds

-270

(73%)

1483

Elo

1544

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'5"

165.1 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marina RodriguezL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Amanda Lemos · Nov 22

vs Virna Jandiroba · May 23

KOvs Michelle Waterson-Gomez · Sep 23

vs Jessica Andrade · Apr 24

vs Iasmin Lucindo · Oct 24

latest

Gillian RobertsonW4 streak

oldest →

vs Tabatha Ricci · Jun 23

KOvs Polyana Viana · Jan 24

vs Michelle Waterson-Gomez · Jun 24

vs Luana Pinheiro · Nov 24

vs Amanda Lemos · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marina RodriguezMetricGillian Robertson

4.51

Strikes / min

2.71

3.01

Strikes absorbed / min

2.86

55%

Strike defense

56%

0.27

TDs / 15 min

2.76

61%

Takedown defense

38%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.50Δ 1.65 — meaningful gap-0.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marina RodriguezGillian Robertson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marina Rodriguez(10 fights)Gillian Robertson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -61.0|Blue +61.0

Recent Form

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marina RodriguezTargetGillian Robertson

By target zone

21% acc · 75%

Head

38% acc · 75%

33% acc · 25%

Body

33% acc · 13%

Leg

67% acc · 13%

By position

24% acc · 100%

Distance

30% acc · 38%

Clinch

Ground

48% acc · 63%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marina Rodriguez rounds

even

Gillian Robertson rounds

Round 1Gillian Robertson edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:34Control

Round 2Gillian Robertson edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:47Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 17

Sig Strikes

16 / 41

32.5%

Sig Str %

37.5%

7 / 20

Total Strikes

73 / 120

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 3

—

TD %

75%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

5:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Gillian Robertson	11 / 25	42 / 63	1 / 2	0
1	Marina Rodriguez	2 / 13	5 / 16	0 / 0	0
2	Gillian Robertson	5 / 16	31 / 57	1 / 1	0
2	Marina Rodriguez	2 / 4	2 / 4	0 / 0	1

Marina Rodriguez

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights13

Gillian Robertson

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights20