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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Marina Rodriguez won · KO/TKO

Elo1483

Elo1480

Marina RodriguezvsAmanda RibasUFC Prediction Result

UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor · Saturday, January 23, 2021Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Marina Rodriguez won

KO/TKO

Style matchupMarina Rodriguez: Well-roundedvsAmanda Ribas: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Amanda Ribas wins(75.6%)

Actual result: Marina Rodriguez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Amanda Ribas at -335 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marina Rodriguez enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Amanda Ribas enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Amanda Ribas has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Marina Rodriguez

Red Corner

Amanda Ribas

Blue Corner

+250

(29%)

Vegas Odds

-335

(77%)

1483

Elo

1480

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'4"

165.1 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marina RodriguezL3 streak

oldest →

vs Virna Jandiroba · May 23

KOvs Michelle Waterson-Gomez · Sep 23

vs Jessica Andrade · Apr 24

vs Iasmin Lucindo · Oct 24

KOvs Gillian Robertson · May 25

latest

Amanda RibasL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Maycee Barber · Jun 23

KOvs Luana Pinheiro · Nov 23

vs Rose Namajunas · Mar 24

SUBvs Mackenzie Dern · Jan 25

KOvs Tabatha Ricci · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marina RodriguezMetricAmanda Ribas

4.51

Strikes / min

4.26

3.01

Strikes absorbed / min

3.29

55%

Strike defense

60%

0.27

TDs / 15 min

2.05

61%

Takedown defense

82%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.50evenly matched on net striking+0.97

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marina RodriguezAmanda Ribas

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marina Rodriguez(10 fights)Amanda Ribas(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +3.1|Blue -3.1

Recent Form

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marina RodriguezTargetAmanda Ribas

By target zone

42% acc · 93%

Head

21% acc · 57%

100% acc · 7%

Body

100% acc · 29%

0% acc

Leg

50% acc · 14%

By position

20% acc · 33%

Distance

19% acc · 43%

100% acc · 20%

Clinch

100% acc · 14%

88% acc · 47%

Ground

50% acc · 43%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marina Rodriguez rounds

even

Amanda Ribas rounds

Round 1Amanda Ribas edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:34Control

Round 2Marina Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:07

Knockdowns1

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

15 / 36

Sig Strikes

7 / 23

35.5%

Sig Str %

26.5%

26 / 52

Total Strikes

35 / 57

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 1

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:07

Ctrl Time

3:39

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Amanda Ribas	6 / 18	34 / 52	1 / 1
1	Marina Rodriguez	2 / 13	13 / 29	0 / 0
2	Amanda Ribas	1 / 5	1 / 5	0 / 0
2	Marina Rodriguez	13 / 23	13 / 23	0 / 0

Marina Rodriguez

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights13

Amanda Ribas

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights13