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Women's Strawweight

5 Rounds

Amanda Lemos won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1483

Elo1488

Marina RodriguezvsAmanda LemosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos · Saturday, November 5, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Amanda Lemos won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 0:54

Style matchupMarina Rodriguez: Well-roundedvsAmanda Lemos: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Amanda Lemos wins(52.5%)

Actual result: Amanda Lemos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Amanda Lemos at +205 American odds

+$205 profit

$305 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marina Rodriguez enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Marina Rodriguez has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Amanda Lemos (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Marina Rodriguez

Red Corner

Amanda Lemos

Blue Corner

-245

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+205

(33%)

1483

Elo

1488

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'6"

Height

5'4"

165.1 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marina RodriguezL3 streak

oldest →

vs Virna Jandiroba · May 23

KOvs Michelle Waterson-Gomez · Sep 23

vs Jessica Andrade · Apr 24

vs Iasmin Lucindo · Oct 24

KOvs Gillian Robertson · May 25

latest

Amanda LemosL2 streak

oldest →

vs Mackenzie Dern · Feb 24

SUBvs Virna Jandiroba · Jul 24

vs Iasmin Lucindo · Mar 25

vs Tatiana Suarez · Sep 25

vs Gillian Robertson · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marina RodriguezMetricAmanda Lemos

4.51

Strikes / min

2.75

3.01

Strikes absorbed / min

3.01

55%

Strike defense

45%

0.27

TDs / 15 min

1.02

61%

Takedown defense

63%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.50Δ 1.76 — meaningful gap-0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marina RodriguezAmanda Lemos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marina Rodriguez(10 fights)Amanda Lemos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -5.1|Blue +5.1

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +133.0|Blue -133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marina RodriguezTargetAmanda Lemos

By target zone

23% acc · 32%

Head

44% acc · 55%

38% acc · 16%

Body

77% acc · 34%

56% acc · 53%

Leg

75% acc · 10%

By position

35% acc · 95%

Distance

52% acc · 86%

Clinch

75% acc · 10%

100% acc · 5%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marina Rodriguez rounds

even

Amanda Lemos rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:15

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Amanda Lemos edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:06Control

Round 3Amanda Lemos edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

19 / 52

Sig Strikes

29 / 53

44%

Sig Str %

54.3%

44 / 78

Total Strikes

43 / 67

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 2

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:15

Ctrl Time

3:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Amanda Lemos	11 / 18	11 / 18	0 / 1	0
1	Marina Rodriguez	9 / 29	12 / 33	0 / 0	0
2	Amanda Lemos	8 / 16	22 / 30	1 / 1	1
2	Marina Rodriguez	4 / 15	26 / 37	0 / 0	0
3	Amanda Lemos	10 / 19	10 / 19	0 / 0	0
3	Marina Rodriguez	6 / 8	6 / 8	0 / 0	0

Marina Rodriguez

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights13

Amanda Lemos

StanceSouthpaw

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights15