← All fights/Event page

Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Maria Oliveira won · S-DEC R3

Elo1463

Elo1494

Maria OliveiravsGloria de PaulaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett · Saturday, June 18, 2022Austin, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Maria Oliveira won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMaria Oliveira: Pressure fightervsGloria de Paula: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Gloria de Paula wins(60.3%)

Actual result: Maria Oliveira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gloria de Paula at -280 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Maria Oliveira enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Gloria de Paula has 22pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Gloria de Paula has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Maria Oliveira

Red Corner

Gloria de Paula

Blue Corner

+235

(30%)

Vegas Odds

-280

(74%)

1463

Elo

1494

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'5"

175.26 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Maria OliveiraL3 streak

oldest →

vs Tabatha Ricci · Oct 21

vs Vanessa Demopoulos · Nov 22

vs Diana Belbita · Jun 23

latest

Gloria de Paula

oldest →

vs Jinh Yu Frey · Mar 21

KOvs Cheyanne Buys · Jul 21

vs Diana Belbita · Feb 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Maria OliveiraMetricGloria de Paula

5.03

Strikes / min

4.89

5.76

Strikes absorbed / min

3.77

44%

Strike defense

66%

0.95

TDs / 15 min

0.74

47%

Takedown defense

65%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.73Δ 1.85 — meaningful gap+1.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Maria OliveiraGloria de Paula

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Maria Oliveira(4 fights)Gloria de Paula(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -31.4|Blue +31.4

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +119.0|Blue -119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Maria OliveiraTargetGloria de Paula

By target zone

27% acc · 69%

Head

48% acc · 71%

52% acc · 13%

Body

73% acc · 10%

67% acc · 19%

Leg

95% acc · 18%

By position

32% acc · 98%

Distance

54% acc · 93%

67% acc · 2%

Clinch

100% acc · 7%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Maria Oliveira rounds

even

Gloria de Paula rounds

Round 1Maria Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:22

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 2Gloria de Paula edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

41Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:23Control

Round 3Maria Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns2

Control1:13

35Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:23Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

96 / 297

Sig Strikes

105 / 190

32%

Sig Str %

54.7%

99 / 303

Total Strikes

116 / 205

2 / 4

TDs

2 / 3

33%

TD %

75%

Sub Att

Rev

1:35

Ctrl Time

0:49

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Gloria de Paula	29 / 60	30 / 61	0 / 0
1	Maria Oliveira	37 / 111	38 / 113	0 / 1
2	Gloria de Paula	41 / 72	45 / 76	1 / 1
2	Maria Oliveira	25 / 98	25 / 98	0 / 0
3	Gloria de Paula	35 / 58	41 / 68	1 / 2
3	Maria Oliveira	34 / 88	36 / 92	2 / 3

Maria Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights4

Gloria de Paula

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights4